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Moscow Conference Ponders Eurasian Security Challenges
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 10 Issue: 103
May 31, 2013 03:57 PM
By: Richard Weitz
Attendants at the "Military and Political Aspects of European
Security" conference, Moscow, May 23 (Source: Reuters)
The May 23 Moscow conference on `Military and Political Aspects of
European Security,' hosted by the Russian Ministry of Defense, saw an
interesting admixture of old and new thinking on seminal Eurasian
security questions. Little progress can be expected in reducing
Russia's and the North Atlantic Security Treaty's (NATO) differences
concerning the military issues, but opportunities for mutually
beneficial cooperation are present in the political areas (This author
attended the conference).
The Russian officials who spoke at the conference generally expressed
pessimistic and familiar views regarding the United States' ballistic
missile defense (BMD) system, NATO's membership enlargement and
military presence in former Soviet bloc countries, the civil war in
Syria, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the
prerequisites for strategic and tactical nuclear arms control (see
EDM, May 28). They repeatedly complained about the alliance's failure
to take into account Russian concerns when making policy decisions,
insufficient NATO cooperation with Moscow in pursuit of common
interests, and needless NATO distrust of Russia.
But Russian officials and non-governmental experts also offered
positive assessments regarding possible cooperation with NATO on other
issues, including Eurasian security relating to post-2014 Afghanistan
and countering Islamist terrorism in Eurasia. In his welcoming message
to the 200-300 conference attendees, President Vladimir Putin noted
improvements in Russian-NATO relations in several areas, from renewed
exchanges and joint exercises to cooperation regarding Afghanistan.
Putin and other Russian officials attributed this progress to the
absence of fundamental ideological differences between Russia and the
West, the rise of multipolarity, the successful functioning of some
arms-control agreements, expanding socioeconomic ties between Russia
and the West, and mutual threats and interests (Russian defense
ministry website, mil.ru/konf_evrodefence/material_appearance.htm,
accessed May 30).
The head of the Presidential Administration, Sergei Ivanov, complained
that some Western countries use `double standards' to judge
international terrorism, such as their support for armed militants
fighting the government of Syria. Ivanov also believed that Russia and
NATO could cooperate more effectively in Afghanistan if the North
Atlantic Alliance would collaborate directly with the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a bloc of Moscow-leaning Eurasian
countries that, in addition to Russia, includes Armenia, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Nonetheless, the Russian and Western speakers agreed that Afghanistan
has been an important area of Russian-NATO cooperation in recent years
and that this collaboration is likely to continue even as the
Alliance-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) draws down
its presence in Afghanistan. For example, Deputy Defense Minister
Anatoly Antonov told an international security forum in Geneva last
month that, `One can predict, with a high degree of probability,
heightened terrorist activity after [the ISAF] military presence in
this country is reduced' (Russian defense ministry website,
mil.ru/konf_evrodefence/material_appearance.htm, accessed May 30).
At the Moscow conference, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu cited
international terrorism rather than NATO as the main threat to
Russia's security, as well as international stability more generally.
He endorsed the French military intervention in Mali and stressed the
importance of Russia and the West working to keep weapons of mass
destruction out of the hands of terrorists. Lieutenant General Igor
Sergun, the head of Russia's military intelligence, told the attendees
that European converts to Islam now fighting with the insurgents in
Syria would likely return to their home countries and potentially
engage in terrorism in Europe. Similarly, in Afghanistan, he warned
that, `A diversified terrorist network, including suicide bomber
training camps, has already been established in the country' by the
Taliban, who could send their experienced foreign militants `to other
hot spots across the world' (RIA Novosti, May 23). Nikolai Bordyuzha,
the CSTO general secretary, also predicted that the security of
Russia's southern borders would decrease following the end of ISAF's
mission next year. Earlier this month, Russia's Ambassador to
Afghanistan said that his government was still considering deploying
its Border Troops back to Tajikistan to help that country, which
borders Afghanistan, deal with the resurgence of Eurasian terrorism
(RIA Novosti, May 17).
The Central Asian countries, which sent their defense ministers or
other senior officials to the Moscow conference, are particularly
eager to sustain some NATO security assistance for their governments
as well as the Afghan National Security Forces in coming years.
Russian officials are not averse to such cooperation in principle even
if they object to some specific initiatives, such as NATO's plans to
transfer excess defense items from their forces in Afghanistan to some
Central Asian countries, who normally obtain their military equipment
from Russia. Given what happened after their former east European
allies joined NATO and reequipped their Soviet-supplied armed forces
with Western weapons, Russian experts fear that such transfers, which
would likely occur at below market cost to the recipients, will
undercut their own arms sales and the resulting leverage Moscow holds
over the receiving governments, as well as make the Central Asian
militaries depend more on NATO's good will for future defense supplies
(Author's interviews at the conference site).
A key theme of the Russian presentations at the conference was their
fundamental dissatisfaction with how today's NATO-dominated European
security structure does not accord Russia sufficient influence given
Moscow's great power status and its large stake in Eurasian security
developments. To address this problem, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov called on NATO governments to sign the draft European security
treaty released by the Russian government several years ago. Western
leaders have dismissed the draft treaty as being impractical and
unnecessary, but Lavrov insisted that the proposal `remain on the
agenda' because it was essential to make the general agreements on the
indivisibility of security contained in OSCE declarations and other
documents more specific, concrete and legally binding in the form of a
draft treaty (Russian defense ministry website,
www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/CD8E25B5082A4EEA44257B750033BBF1, accessed May
30).
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who is visiting
Washington today (May 31), will likely discuss these issues in his
meetings with President Barack Obama and other senior US officials.
Obama and Putin have exchanged letters through their national security
advisers in recent weeks, affirming a desire to cooperate further on
security issues (Moscow Times, May 23). In the near term, Afghanistan
and Central Asia look to be the most promising areas for Russia-NATO
cooperation, given shared Russian and NATO concerns that the region
will see a revival of Islamist terrorism there as Western combat
troops continue their withdrawal.
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40971&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=e7f28b057b6d90391e284f4374e567a0
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 10 Issue: 103
May 31, 2013 03:57 PM
By: Richard Weitz
Attendants at the "Military and Political Aspects of European
Security" conference, Moscow, May 23 (Source: Reuters)
The May 23 Moscow conference on `Military and Political Aspects of
European Security,' hosted by the Russian Ministry of Defense, saw an
interesting admixture of old and new thinking on seminal Eurasian
security questions. Little progress can be expected in reducing
Russia's and the North Atlantic Security Treaty's (NATO) differences
concerning the military issues, but opportunities for mutually
beneficial cooperation are present in the political areas (This author
attended the conference).
The Russian officials who spoke at the conference generally expressed
pessimistic and familiar views regarding the United States' ballistic
missile defense (BMD) system, NATO's membership enlargement and
military presence in former Soviet bloc countries, the civil war in
Syria, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the
prerequisites for strategic and tactical nuclear arms control (see
EDM, May 28). They repeatedly complained about the alliance's failure
to take into account Russian concerns when making policy decisions,
insufficient NATO cooperation with Moscow in pursuit of common
interests, and needless NATO distrust of Russia.
But Russian officials and non-governmental experts also offered
positive assessments regarding possible cooperation with NATO on other
issues, including Eurasian security relating to post-2014 Afghanistan
and countering Islamist terrorism in Eurasia. In his welcoming message
to the 200-300 conference attendees, President Vladimir Putin noted
improvements in Russian-NATO relations in several areas, from renewed
exchanges and joint exercises to cooperation regarding Afghanistan.
Putin and other Russian officials attributed this progress to the
absence of fundamental ideological differences between Russia and the
West, the rise of multipolarity, the successful functioning of some
arms-control agreements, expanding socioeconomic ties between Russia
and the West, and mutual threats and interests (Russian defense
ministry website, mil.ru/konf_evrodefence/material_appearance.htm,
accessed May 30).
The head of the Presidential Administration, Sergei Ivanov, complained
that some Western countries use `double standards' to judge
international terrorism, such as their support for armed militants
fighting the government of Syria. Ivanov also believed that Russia and
NATO could cooperate more effectively in Afghanistan if the North
Atlantic Alliance would collaborate directly with the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a bloc of Moscow-leaning Eurasian
countries that, in addition to Russia, includes Armenia, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Nonetheless, the Russian and Western speakers agreed that Afghanistan
has been an important area of Russian-NATO cooperation in recent years
and that this collaboration is likely to continue even as the
Alliance-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) draws down
its presence in Afghanistan. For example, Deputy Defense Minister
Anatoly Antonov told an international security forum in Geneva last
month that, `One can predict, with a high degree of probability,
heightened terrorist activity after [the ISAF] military presence in
this country is reduced' (Russian defense ministry website,
mil.ru/konf_evrodefence/material_appearance.htm, accessed May 30).
At the Moscow conference, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu cited
international terrorism rather than NATO as the main threat to
Russia's security, as well as international stability more generally.
He endorsed the French military intervention in Mali and stressed the
importance of Russia and the West working to keep weapons of mass
destruction out of the hands of terrorists. Lieutenant General Igor
Sergun, the head of Russia's military intelligence, told the attendees
that European converts to Islam now fighting with the insurgents in
Syria would likely return to their home countries and potentially
engage in terrorism in Europe. Similarly, in Afghanistan, he warned
that, `A diversified terrorist network, including suicide bomber
training camps, has already been established in the country' by the
Taliban, who could send their experienced foreign militants `to other
hot spots across the world' (RIA Novosti, May 23). Nikolai Bordyuzha,
the CSTO general secretary, also predicted that the security of
Russia's southern borders would decrease following the end of ISAF's
mission next year. Earlier this month, Russia's Ambassador to
Afghanistan said that his government was still considering deploying
its Border Troops back to Tajikistan to help that country, which
borders Afghanistan, deal with the resurgence of Eurasian terrorism
(RIA Novosti, May 17).
The Central Asian countries, which sent their defense ministers or
other senior officials to the Moscow conference, are particularly
eager to sustain some NATO security assistance for their governments
as well as the Afghan National Security Forces in coming years.
Russian officials are not averse to such cooperation in principle even
if they object to some specific initiatives, such as NATO's plans to
transfer excess defense items from their forces in Afghanistan to some
Central Asian countries, who normally obtain their military equipment
from Russia. Given what happened after their former east European
allies joined NATO and reequipped their Soviet-supplied armed forces
with Western weapons, Russian experts fear that such transfers, which
would likely occur at below market cost to the recipients, will
undercut their own arms sales and the resulting leverage Moscow holds
over the receiving governments, as well as make the Central Asian
militaries depend more on NATO's good will for future defense supplies
(Author's interviews at the conference site).
A key theme of the Russian presentations at the conference was their
fundamental dissatisfaction with how today's NATO-dominated European
security structure does not accord Russia sufficient influence given
Moscow's great power status and its large stake in Eurasian security
developments. To address this problem, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov called on NATO governments to sign the draft European security
treaty released by the Russian government several years ago. Western
leaders have dismissed the draft treaty as being impractical and
unnecessary, but Lavrov insisted that the proposal `remain on the
agenda' because it was essential to make the general agreements on the
indivisibility of security contained in OSCE declarations and other
documents more specific, concrete and legally binding in the form of a
draft treaty (Russian defense ministry website,
www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/CD8E25B5082A4EEA44257B750033BBF1, accessed May
30).
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who is visiting
Washington today (May 31), will likely discuss these issues in his
meetings with President Barack Obama and other senior US officials.
Obama and Putin have exchanged letters through their national security
advisers in recent weeks, affirming a desire to cooperate further on
security issues (Moscow Times, May 23). In the near term, Afghanistan
and Central Asia look to be the most promising areas for Russia-NATO
cooperation, given shared Russian and NATO concerns that the region
will see a revival of Islamist terrorism there as Western combat
troops continue their withdrawal.
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40971&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=e7f28b057b6d90391e284f4374e567a0