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RUBEN SAFRASTYAN: THE FACT THAT PROTESTORS IN TURKEY ARE NOT AFRAID OF REPRESSIONS MAY TRANSFER TO AZERBAIJAN
Interview of Director of Oriental Studies Institute under Armenian
National Academy of Science Ruben Safrastyan with Arminfo news agency
by David Stepanyan
Thursday, June 20, 14:56
What are the main reasons of unrest in Turkey?
Certainly, the direct reason of unrest in Turkey was a decision
about liquidation of the Gesi Park in the center of Istanbul. The
decision to name the third bridge on Bosporus after Yavuz Sultan
Selim known for suppression of all Shiits and Turkish Alevits, in
particular, also had a certain effect. Prerequisites for the last
unrest in Turkey were accumulating for a long period of time. First
of all, one should separate the displeasure of certain layers of the
Turkish society with the policy conducted by Erdogan's government in
the sphere of human rights, in particular, freedom of speech. About
100 Turkish journalists are either in prisons or are persecuted. Of
course, this causes displeasure of the society. Another reason of
unrest is displeasure of certain circles of the Istanbul and Ankara
society with the authoritarian person and the ruling ways of Erdogan,
he said and added that the Turkish premier is known for his inability
to listen to advices, and for doing what he wants. I don't want to give
higher priority to that, however, there is also certain displeasure
with the policy of Turkey's islamization.
Does it mean that islamization is not the key reason of unrest
in Turkey?
No, it does not. Nevertheless, it would be incorrect to say that
islamization was the main reason of unrest in Turkey, though it
plays some part. One should revise the reasons of unrest only in a
body. The key reason of unrest in all over the country was using of a
huge force by policemen against a small crowd of peaceful ecological
activists at Taksim. The unrest spread in all over the country since
the beginning of June.
Don't you see tendencies for transferring of the unrest into "the
Turkish spring" similar to the "Arab spring"?
The ongoing unrest in Turkey is not 'a Turkish spring,' as Erdogan and
his government came to power in a legal and civilized way all the three
terms. The most organized forces among the Arab spring protesters were
Islamists. Therefore, Islamists have largely come to power as a result
of those protests. In Turkey, the situation is different. Nevertheless,
there is something that connects it with the Arab spring. I mean social
media, social networks, flash mobs that are organized to awaken certain
groups of the population and consolidate them around activists. .
It is not for nothing that Recep Erdogan called Twitter and Facebook
the key enemies of the Turkish public. By data of 2012, 32 out of
36 million Turkish users have Facebook accounts. In this context,
Twitter and Facebook - all that connects the Arab revolutions and
the unrest in Turkey.
By the way, what Turkey does the West need today? And does Erdogan's
government suit the USA?
The availability of Erdogan's government in Turkey suits the USA,
first of all, which own any levers of influence at the situation.
Washington is behind Erdogan, as just the AKP (Justice and Development
Party) was ensuring Turkey's stability. Just Erdogan is, in general,
conducting the policy in the course of the American policy in the
Middle East. I think that just for this reason the USA has already
used its levers with a purpose of localization of the protesting
movement in Turkey. By the way, this a difference of the situation
between Turkey and the "Arab spring.
The opposition blames Erdogan for the attempts to Islamize Turkey
even more. There is a viewpoint according to which today the USA is
also interested in islamization of Turkey...
I would not sex up the interest of the USA in islamization of Turkey
and strengthening of the Sunit vector, taking into consideration
the fact that the USA does not own the levers which would allow
it to seriously promote enhancing of sunizm like a contradiction
to shiizm in Iran. The USA is simply interested in Erdogan like a
geo-political player, which in general is playing according to their
rules. As for Erdogan, he is directly interested in islamization of
Turkey. In fact, a new elite group has come to the power, in which
AKP is just a visible political part. Different muslims groups have
been functioning within the party, which were removed from the power
for a long period of time during the regime of Ataturkists in Turkey.
You said about the role of servicemen...
I think that in the political sense today's role of servicemen is
nullified. And Erdogan's policy directed at isolation of servicemen
from policy has brought its fruits.
The participation of Turkey in the events in Syria is considered to
be one of the main reasons of displeasure in the Turkish society. What
do you think?
As for Turkey's participation in the events in Syria, we can notice
a certain link, but in this context, the displeasure of the Turkish
society finds room in the general displeasure with foreign policy
conducted by Erdogan. We were witnesses of demonstrations against
direct or even indirect participation of Turkey in the civil war in
Syria, in Istanbul and other Turkish towns especially the bordering
ones.
The official Baku has not yet reacted at the processes in Turkey. What
are the reasons of that?
The reason of the close-mouth approach of official Baku towards the
last domestic political processes in Turkey is the fear that Turkish
unrest may transfer to Azerbaijan especially on the threshold of
the presidential election in October. I think that one may expect
such impulses in the domestic political life of Azerbaijan. The
demonstrators in Turkey overcame the most important - the fear of state
and force using. This is for the first time that in Turkey the crowd
did not step back because of force using. And despite everything, the
people are at Taksim. And the absence of fear of force and repressions
may transfer to Azerbaijan and become a serious problem for its
authorities. And the authorities of Baku understand it very well.
Aliyev is again going to run for president and his wife has become
a deputy chairperson of "Ani Azerbaijan" party. This is evidence of
endlessness of the political course of the Aliyevs and Pashayevs...
Actually, there are no signs of changing and everything will
develop the way it used to develop for many years. It is obvious that
everything will develop according to the known scenario drawn out for
many years. And aggressive rhetoric of Baku's leadership, which is
an indivisible part of their policy, will also continue the same way.
There are just several months before the election. Anyway, the
authorities will still hold out thanks to these slogans for that
period of time.
What are the most possible option of the scenario of further
development of events in Turkey?
I thought that immediately after returning from Africa, Erdogan will
call on his supporters to come to the square, but this did not happen
although there were all the signs for that. It is very much possible
that somebody managed to beguile him out of this spontaneous step,
as in case of an open confrontation between Erdogan's supporters and
opponents, it will be hard to avoid split of Turkey. Nevertheless,
demonstrations will be held though not so much organized to avoid
clashes. The majority in Turkey are Erdogan's supporters. For this
reason, he said he can easily gather a million of protestors. For
this reason, I think that the protest movement in Turkey will come
to nothing.
More or less progressive part of the Turkish society gathered at
Taksim. May a problem of the Armenian genocide recognition get a new
impulse at least in these layers of the Turkish society?
It is not ruled out. But stemming from a bitter historical experience,
the Armenians must not forget that the entire history of the Ottoman
empire and Turkey has taught the Armenian people that usually similar
events end in pogroms of the Armenians. At present, a known historian
Taner Akcham and other Turks have arrived from Europe and the USA to
Istanbul to take part in the last events. Akcham together with his
likeminded people have initiated to build a temporary monument to
the victims of the Armenian genocide at Taksim.
But other groups of the protesting movement were "against" it, saying
this may damage the whole movement.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=00852B80-D998-11E2-ABD10EB7C0D21663
Interview of Director of Oriental Studies Institute under Armenian
National Academy of Science Ruben Safrastyan with Arminfo news agency
by David Stepanyan
Thursday, June 20, 14:56
What are the main reasons of unrest in Turkey?
Certainly, the direct reason of unrest in Turkey was a decision
about liquidation of the Gesi Park in the center of Istanbul. The
decision to name the third bridge on Bosporus after Yavuz Sultan
Selim known for suppression of all Shiits and Turkish Alevits, in
particular, also had a certain effect. Prerequisites for the last
unrest in Turkey were accumulating for a long period of time. First
of all, one should separate the displeasure of certain layers of the
Turkish society with the policy conducted by Erdogan's government in
the sphere of human rights, in particular, freedom of speech. About
100 Turkish journalists are either in prisons or are persecuted. Of
course, this causes displeasure of the society. Another reason of
unrest is displeasure of certain circles of the Istanbul and Ankara
society with the authoritarian person and the ruling ways of Erdogan,
he said and added that the Turkish premier is known for his inability
to listen to advices, and for doing what he wants. I don't want to give
higher priority to that, however, there is also certain displeasure
with the policy of Turkey's islamization.
Does it mean that islamization is not the key reason of unrest
in Turkey?
No, it does not. Nevertheless, it would be incorrect to say that
islamization was the main reason of unrest in Turkey, though it
plays some part. One should revise the reasons of unrest only in a
body. The key reason of unrest in all over the country was using of a
huge force by policemen against a small crowd of peaceful ecological
activists at Taksim. The unrest spread in all over the country since
the beginning of June.
Don't you see tendencies for transferring of the unrest into "the
Turkish spring" similar to the "Arab spring"?
The ongoing unrest in Turkey is not 'a Turkish spring,' as Erdogan and
his government came to power in a legal and civilized way all the three
terms. The most organized forces among the Arab spring protesters were
Islamists. Therefore, Islamists have largely come to power as a result
of those protests. In Turkey, the situation is different. Nevertheless,
there is something that connects it with the Arab spring. I mean social
media, social networks, flash mobs that are organized to awaken certain
groups of the population and consolidate them around activists. .
It is not for nothing that Recep Erdogan called Twitter and Facebook
the key enemies of the Turkish public. By data of 2012, 32 out of
36 million Turkish users have Facebook accounts. In this context,
Twitter and Facebook - all that connects the Arab revolutions and
the unrest in Turkey.
By the way, what Turkey does the West need today? And does Erdogan's
government suit the USA?
The availability of Erdogan's government in Turkey suits the USA,
first of all, which own any levers of influence at the situation.
Washington is behind Erdogan, as just the AKP (Justice and Development
Party) was ensuring Turkey's stability. Just Erdogan is, in general,
conducting the policy in the course of the American policy in the
Middle East. I think that just for this reason the USA has already
used its levers with a purpose of localization of the protesting
movement in Turkey. By the way, this a difference of the situation
between Turkey and the "Arab spring.
The opposition blames Erdogan for the attempts to Islamize Turkey
even more. There is a viewpoint according to which today the USA is
also interested in islamization of Turkey...
I would not sex up the interest of the USA in islamization of Turkey
and strengthening of the Sunit vector, taking into consideration
the fact that the USA does not own the levers which would allow
it to seriously promote enhancing of sunizm like a contradiction
to shiizm in Iran. The USA is simply interested in Erdogan like a
geo-political player, which in general is playing according to their
rules. As for Erdogan, he is directly interested in islamization of
Turkey. In fact, a new elite group has come to the power, in which
AKP is just a visible political part. Different muslims groups have
been functioning within the party, which were removed from the power
for a long period of time during the regime of Ataturkists in Turkey.
You said about the role of servicemen...
I think that in the political sense today's role of servicemen is
nullified. And Erdogan's policy directed at isolation of servicemen
from policy has brought its fruits.
The participation of Turkey in the events in Syria is considered to
be one of the main reasons of displeasure in the Turkish society. What
do you think?
As for Turkey's participation in the events in Syria, we can notice
a certain link, but in this context, the displeasure of the Turkish
society finds room in the general displeasure with foreign policy
conducted by Erdogan. We were witnesses of demonstrations against
direct or even indirect participation of Turkey in the civil war in
Syria, in Istanbul and other Turkish towns especially the bordering
ones.
The official Baku has not yet reacted at the processes in Turkey. What
are the reasons of that?
The reason of the close-mouth approach of official Baku towards the
last domestic political processes in Turkey is the fear that Turkish
unrest may transfer to Azerbaijan especially on the threshold of
the presidential election in October. I think that one may expect
such impulses in the domestic political life of Azerbaijan. The
demonstrators in Turkey overcame the most important - the fear of state
and force using. This is for the first time that in Turkey the crowd
did not step back because of force using. And despite everything, the
people are at Taksim. And the absence of fear of force and repressions
may transfer to Azerbaijan and become a serious problem for its
authorities. And the authorities of Baku understand it very well.
Aliyev is again going to run for president and his wife has become
a deputy chairperson of "Ani Azerbaijan" party. This is evidence of
endlessness of the political course of the Aliyevs and Pashayevs...
Actually, there are no signs of changing and everything will
develop the way it used to develop for many years. It is obvious that
everything will develop according to the known scenario drawn out for
many years. And aggressive rhetoric of Baku's leadership, which is
an indivisible part of their policy, will also continue the same way.
There are just several months before the election. Anyway, the
authorities will still hold out thanks to these slogans for that
period of time.
What are the most possible option of the scenario of further
development of events in Turkey?
I thought that immediately after returning from Africa, Erdogan will
call on his supporters to come to the square, but this did not happen
although there were all the signs for that. It is very much possible
that somebody managed to beguile him out of this spontaneous step,
as in case of an open confrontation between Erdogan's supporters and
opponents, it will be hard to avoid split of Turkey. Nevertheless,
demonstrations will be held though not so much organized to avoid
clashes. The majority in Turkey are Erdogan's supporters. For this
reason, he said he can easily gather a million of protestors. For
this reason, I think that the protest movement in Turkey will come
to nothing.
More or less progressive part of the Turkish society gathered at
Taksim. May a problem of the Armenian genocide recognition get a new
impulse at least in these layers of the Turkish society?
It is not ruled out. But stemming from a bitter historical experience,
the Armenians must not forget that the entire history of the Ottoman
empire and Turkey has taught the Armenian people that usually similar
events end in pogroms of the Armenians. At present, a known historian
Taner Akcham and other Turks have arrived from Europe and the USA to
Istanbul to take part in the last events. Akcham together with his
likeminded people have initiated to build a temporary monument to
the victims of the Armenian genocide at Taksim.
But other groups of the protesting movement were "against" it, saying
this may damage the whole movement.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=00852B80-D998-11E2-ABD10EB7C0D21663