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"A NEW WAVE OF MIGRATION WILL APPEAR IN THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD"
Vetsnik Kavkaza, Russia
March 6 2013
Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Arutyun Mesropyan, the management expert, told Vestnik Kavkaza
about his views on the Armenian economy in the post-election period,
prospects of power changing, and possible changes in internal political
processes.
- How will Armenian economy develop in the post-election period?
- The authorities of Armenia will have to define how the republic's
economy will look in 5-10 years, and develop an economic course,
according to this. Today, the economy is not developing. We can only
speak about a growth and a drop, while any normal economic program
should strive for providing quality, rather than quantity.
Foreign investments won't come to an economy which relies on power of
monopolists and oligarchs jointed with the authorities. Even inflation
is impossible in such an economic model.
After presidential elections Armenia will see a traditional growth of
inflation. Powerful influence of political processes on price forming
in the republic is connected with monopolization of the market. The
countries with economic models which are similar to Armenian one cannot
experience inflation conditioned by market processes only. A bright
example is absence of a correlation between sugar price fluctuations at
international markets and in Armenia. The current scheme of inflation
calculation should be reconsidered in Armenia.
- By the way, the post-election period is said to be marked by a new
wave of capital outflow in Armenia...
- It is notable that that capital outflow from Armenia improved last
year. Today the annual volume of private transfers into Armenia
surpasses $2 billion - these are interest-free investments into
economy. However, it flows out more than flows in. There are several
reasons for this. The fact that Armenia imports more than exports
explains the difference between capital outflow and capital inflow. I
think these tendencies will only improve in the post-election period.
- The leader of the protest movement which was formed after the
presidential elections, Raffi Ovannisyan, stated about his intention
to fight for a reconsideration of the results. What are prospects of
the current protest movement?
- It is self-evident that Armenian people don't want to see party
activists among them. Considering the general character of Ovanisyan's
statements, he is perceived separately from the party aspect - not as
a leader of the opposition party Heritage, but as a man from common
people. Today everything depends on the fact whether the situation
will pass the point of no return or not, according to Ovanisyan's
statements. If his ideas begin to be implemented, we will register
a start of serious changes in the management system of Armenia. For
determination of this point of no return there is a simple and reliable
way. It is determined by a team which will be formed by a leader of a
protest movement. Professional skills of certain members of this team
will define results of the movement. If people who took key positions
since 1991, who got used to work in an ineffective system are involved
in his team, it will mean absence of prospects for the movement. Till
Ovanisyan's team is not composed, it is early to estimate prospects
of recent protest processes.
- What are prospects of "Revolution of Greetings" by Ovannisyan?
- I can see two interesting features in the current protest
movement, which haven't been used before. Firstly, it is a low
level of aggression or even its absence. We haven't seen it since
1996 when people headed by the officially lost candidate - Vazgen
Manukyan - attacked the parliament. The second feature is that in the
post-election period Ovannisyan doesn't overshadow Armenian regions.
It is an interesting step, considering the net decentralized models
of the protest movement are more effective and viable. Centralized
structures are vulnerable. The low level of aggression creates
a problem for the authorities as they miss an opportunity to use
repressions. The authorities have no reason for aggression in return.
- The West supported Serge Sargsyan who is thought to be pro-Russian
and turned away from Ovannisyan. Do you think it is logical?
- It doesn't mean there is no behind-the-scenes struggle.
Armenia is surrounded by many painful points of humanity: the Middle
East, Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Israel. If Armenia was an insignificant
factor in the geopolitics, the USA, Russia, the EU, and China would
hardly act in Armenia directly or indirectly. Armenia takes a rather
important geographic and strategic space. It would be ridiculous to
think that there is no foreign influence on Armenian elections. The
question is whether this influence is important for development of
the post-election situation.
- Officially Ovannisyan was supported by 40% of voters which means
significant indignation of citizens. What are the reasons for it?
- The Armenian society expresses indignation since 1991. It is caused
by a drop of justice level, ruining of a bond between the authorities
and the society. The first burst of the dissatisfaction took place in
1996 after the presidential elections. The fact that all presidential
elections are ended by social dissatisfaction means that the society
is dissatisfied with the administrating system of Armenia from the
independence day. The society and the power have no feedback.
It leads to destabilization and self-destruction of the management
system. However, the socio-economic aspect is not the only component of
social dissatisfaction. I am sure we will see a new wave of migration
in the post-election period, and all candidates will be guilty of
this. They performed a show, and some people believed them, but in
the end they will see only disappointment.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/economy/37758.html
Vetsnik Kavkaza, Russia
March 6 2013
Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Arutyun Mesropyan, the management expert, told Vestnik Kavkaza
about his views on the Armenian economy in the post-election period,
prospects of power changing, and possible changes in internal political
processes.
- How will Armenian economy develop in the post-election period?
- The authorities of Armenia will have to define how the republic's
economy will look in 5-10 years, and develop an economic course,
according to this. Today, the economy is not developing. We can only
speak about a growth and a drop, while any normal economic program
should strive for providing quality, rather than quantity.
Foreign investments won't come to an economy which relies on power of
monopolists and oligarchs jointed with the authorities. Even inflation
is impossible in such an economic model.
After presidential elections Armenia will see a traditional growth of
inflation. Powerful influence of political processes on price forming
in the republic is connected with monopolization of the market. The
countries with economic models which are similar to Armenian one cannot
experience inflation conditioned by market processes only. A bright
example is absence of a correlation between sugar price fluctuations at
international markets and in Armenia. The current scheme of inflation
calculation should be reconsidered in Armenia.
- By the way, the post-election period is said to be marked by a new
wave of capital outflow in Armenia...
- It is notable that that capital outflow from Armenia improved last
year. Today the annual volume of private transfers into Armenia
surpasses $2 billion - these are interest-free investments into
economy. However, it flows out more than flows in. There are several
reasons for this. The fact that Armenia imports more than exports
explains the difference between capital outflow and capital inflow. I
think these tendencies will only improve in the post-election period.
- The leader of the protest movement which was formed after the
presidential elections, Raffi Ovannisyan, stated about his intention
to fight for a reconsideration of the results. What are prospects of
the current protest movement?
- It is self-evident that Armenian people don't want to see party
activists among them. Considering the general character of Ovanisyan's
statements, he is perceived separately from the party aspect - not as
a leader of the opposition party Heritage, but as a man from common
people. Today everything depends on the fact whether the situation
will pass the point of no return or not, according to Ovanisyan's
statements. If his ideas begin to be implemented, we will register
a start of serious changes in the management system of Armenia. For
determination of this point of no return there is a simple and reliable
way. It is determined by a team which will be formed by a leader of a
protest movement. Professional skills of certain members of this team
will define results of the movement. If people who took key positions
since 1991, who got used to work in an ineffective system are involved
in his team, it will mean absence of prospects for the movement. Till
Ovanisyan's team is not composed, it is early to estimate prospects
of recent protest processes.
- What are prospects of "Revolution of Greetings" by Ovannisyan?
- I can see two interesting features in the current protest
movement, which haven't been used before. Firstly, it is a low
level of aggression or even its absence. We haven't seen it since
1996 when people headed by the officially lost candidate - Vazgen
Manukyan - attacked the parliament. The second feature is that in the
post-election period Ovannisyan doesn't overshadow Armenian regions.
It is an interesting step, considering the net decentralized models
of the protest movement are more effective and viable. Centralized
structures are vulnerable. The low level of aggression creates
a problem for the authorities as they miss an opportunity to use
repressions. The authorities have no reason for aggression in return.
- The West supported Serge Sargsyan who is thought to be pro-Russian
and turned away from Ovannisyan. Do you think it is logical?
- It doesn't mean there is no behind-the-scenes struggle.
Armenia is surrounded by many painful points of humanity: the Middle
East, Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Israel. If Armenia was an insignificant
factor in the geopolitics, the USA, Russia, the EU, and China would
hardly act in Armenia directly or indirectly. Armenia takes a rather
important geographic and strategic space. It would be ridiculous to
think that there is no foreign influence on Armenian elections. The
question is whether this influence is important for development of
the post-election situation.
- Officially Ovannisyan was supported by 40% of voters which means
significant indignation of citizens. What are the reasons for it?
- The Armenian society expresses indignation since 1991. It is caused
by a drop of justice level, ruining of a bond between the authorities
and the society. The first burst of the dissatisfaction took place in
1996 after the presidential elections. The fact that all presidential
elections are ended by social dissatisfaction means that the society
is dissatisfied with the administrating system of Armenia from the
independence day. The society and the power have no feedback.
It leads to destabilization and self-destruction of the management
system. However, the socio-economic aspect is not the only component of
social dissatisfaction. I am sure we will see a new wave of migration
in the post-election period, and all candidates will be guilty of
this. They performed a show, and some people believed them, but in
the end they will see only disappointment.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/economy/37758.html