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KARABAKH CONFLICT CAN BE RESOLVED ONLY BY ARMENIAN, AZERI GOVTS; MEDIATORS CAN ONLY PROMOTE RESOLUTION - ANALYST
Interfax, Russia
March 13 2013
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh will have to be resolved ultimately
by the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia, says Sergei Markov,
a member of the Russian Public Chamber and a deputy head of the
inter-commission working group on international cooperation and
public diplomacy.
"This is a huge problem, and we don't claim to be able to settle it,
but we can help create a dialogue between civil and non-governmental
organizations that are gradually forming their position. We support
the idea that people should normally talk with each other and should
gradually unfreeze some ties, including humanitarian, economic and
so on. We are willing to promote this," Markov told journalists in
Baku on Tuesday.
Dmitry Medvedev arranged several meetings between the Azeri and
Armenian leaders during his presidency, he said.
"This is a very complicated problem. This is why our assistance is
needed. It is well known that not only Russia is a mediator, but the
U.S. and the European Union are also mediators as members of the Minsk
Group. Some are trying to interact somehow. Our goal is to make sure
there is no slide into military actions and at the same time that
there should be no stiff freezing, so that the situation move in a
positive direction toward settling this conflict," Markov said.
Russia cannot force any party to make any steps; "we cannot hurry up
anyone or force them to do anything," he said.
"As we know, this problem itself is a result of the excessive use
of force. We believe that the main things through which this problem
should be resolved is peace and humanitarian and economic cooperation.
It seems to me that, in order to resolve it, this problem should not be
exaggerated but, on the contrary, it would be useful even to somewhat
abstract away from it in order to develop normal relationships, create
new conditions and, based on new conditions, revert to this system,"
he said.
"On the other hand, the problem could perhaps be resolved in the future
as a result of some grave crisis. Because if some grave geopolitical
crisis erupts, this problem may be resolved very quickly," he said.
The current model of Armenian-Azeri relations over Nagorno-Karabakh
reflects the alignment of forces between the two countries 20 years
ago, he said.
"Since then, the alignment of forces has changed very much, and
Azerbaijan has become much more powerful than Armenia. And therefore
it may seem that a new format should reflect the current alignment of
forces. However, the problem is that, as it appears to me, Azerbaijan's
abilities to develop in a military or a peaceful way are blocked. A
military solution could destabilize the economy, while Azerbaijan's
economy is the main instrument with which this country is consistently
changing the alignment of forces in its favor. That is, a military way
does exist in theory, but in practice it undermines itself. As for the
peaceful way, it involves the U.S. and the European Union - which is in
fact France - as mediators. These are two countries in which Armenia's
allies are strong, because there are strong diasporas there. So it
turns out that the peaceful process is difficult. Therefore, Azerbaijan
should have a less ordinary combination. I don't have any recipe,"
he said.
From: Baghdasarian
Interfax, Russia
March 13 2013
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh will have to be resolved ultimately
by the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia, says Sergei Markov,
a member of the Russian Public Chamber and a deputy head of the
inter-commission working group on international cooperation and
public diplomacy.
"This is a huge problem, and we don't claim to be able to settle it,
but we can help create a dialogue between civil and non-governmental
organizations that are gradually forming their position. We support
the idea that people should normally talk with each other and should
gradually unfreeze some ties, including humanitarian, economic and
so on. We are willing to promote this," Markov told journalists in
Baku on Tuesday.
Dmitry Medvedev arranged several meetings between the Azeri and
Armenian leaders during his presidency, he said.
"This is a very complicated problem. This is why our assistance is
needed. It is well known that not only Russia is a mediator, but the
U.S. and the European Union are also mediators as members of the Minsk
Group. Some are trying to interact somehow. Our goal is to make sure
there is no slide into military actions and at the same time that
there should be no stiff freezing, so that the situation move in a
positive direction toward settling this conflict," Markov said.
Russia cannot force any party to make any steps; "we cannot hurry up
anyone or force them to do anything," he said.
"As we know, this problem itself is a result of the excessive use
of force. We believe that the main things through which this problem
should be resolved is peace and humanitarian and economic cooperation.
It seems to me that, in order to resolve it, this problem should not be
exaggerated but, on the contrary, it would be useful even to somewhat
abstract away from it in order to develop normal relationships, create
new conditions and, based on new conditions, revert to this system,"
he said.
"On the other hand, the problem could perhaps be resolved in the future
as a result of some grave crisis. Because if some grave geopolitical
crisis erupts, this problem may be resolved very quickly," he said.
The current model of Armenian-Azeri relations over Nagorno-Karabakh
reflects the alignment of forces between the two countries 20 years
ago, he said.
"Since then, the alignment of forces has changed very much, and
Azerbaijan has become much more powerful than Armenia. And therefore
it may seem that a new format should reflect the current alignment of
forces. However, the problem is that, as it appears to me, Azerbaijan's
abilities to develop in a military or a peaceful way are blocked. A
military solution could destabilize the economy, while Azerbaijan's
economy is the main instrument with which this country is consistently
changing the alignment of forces in its favor. That is, a military way
does exist in theory, but in practice it undermines itself. As for the
peaceful way, it involves the U.S. and the European Union - which is in
fact France - as mediators. These are two countries in which Armenia's
allies are strong, because there are strong diasporas there. So it
turns out that the peaceful process is difficult. Therefore, Azerbaijan
should have a less ordinary combination. I don't have any recipe,"
he said.
From: Baghdasarian