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ARMENIA TRIES MULTI-VECTOR FOREIGN POLICY
Part I
Keghart.com Editorial Board, 17 March 2013
One of the major-if not the main-theme of Armenia's long history is its
involuntary role as a buffer state and its consequent involvement in
conflicts between the East and the West. The Sumerians, Assyrians,
Scythians, Achaemenids, Parthians, Sassanids, Arab Caliphates,
Mamluks, Persians (again), and Turks in the East have all battled on
Armenian soil against the Greeks, Macedonians, Romans, Byzantium, the
Crusaders, Russians, France, and the Soviets in the West to dominate or
to occupy Armenia. When unable to do so, they've tried to force us to
be their allies. These titanic conflicts between empires of the East
and the West have inevitably turned Armenia into a bloody arena or
"grvakhntsor" as Armenians ("the apple/prize of the fight") say.
More than 2,500 years after these dynastic duels of the empires began,
there seems nothing is new under the sun. In 2013 Armenian rulers
face foreign policy challenges which are identical to the ones their
forefather kings had to tackle two-and-a-half millennia ago.
After the 70-year Soviet sojourn, when Kremlin-ruled Armenia was
not in the international diplomatic push and pull, Yerevan is back
in the great game. While Soviet Union has sunk into the dustbin of
history, Russia remains a superpower in the post-Cold War world
and justifiably feels threatened by NATO. To fend off Western
encroachments, post-Soviet Moscow engineered the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) for the Commonwealth of Independent
States (some of the former Soviet republics). Armenia is a CSTO
partner. The military/political bloc guarantees the security of
Armenia, particularly from Turkish encroachments.
To further buttress its shrinking areas of influence around its
perimeter, Moscow in recent years, promoted a new entity called Customs
Union. President Vladimir Putin would like to see the Customs Union
evolve into a closely-knit Eurasian Union (EU) of the former Soviet
republics (not be confused with the European EU). The Russian ruler
exerted tremendous pressure on Armenia to join the Customs Union. To
"persuade" Armenia to join the Customs Union, Russia also threatened
to use its gas as geopolitical weapon, courted Turkey, and sold
weapons to Baku. But Yerevan resisted Putin's blandishments and made
overtures to the European Union. A mid-March Sarkissian and Putin
meeting didn't bear any fruit. In fact, no statements were issued
following their discussions.
Armenia considers the Eurasian Union an arcane political model of a
new-and shaky--Russian empire. If it joins the Customs Union-Eurasian
Union, Armenia would also violate its constitution, limit its
sovereignty and likely become a vassal of Moscow. Only Belarus and
Kazakhstan have joined the Customs Union.
Armenia has made no secret to Russia that it wants to establish a
new relationship based on hard strategic and diplomatic interests,
rather than on the sentimental historical ties and the medals Armenian
soldiers won during WWII. Not to be caught in Russia's embrace--or
more likely in the Russian bear's chocke-hold, Armenia has been
negotiating with the European Common Market. Yerevan wants to retain
the security its CSTO partnership provides, but at the same time
to integrate with the European Union and develop closer ties with
the United States. European Union spokesmen such as Security Chief
Catherine Ashton have stated that Armenia's desired integration with
the EU is incompatible with any involvement in Moscow's efforts to
cobble together a band of ex-Soviet friends.
Armenia now holds regular meetings with the European Commission
for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy, Armenian diplomats
frequently meet the various European integration committees and Yerevan
is expected to sign, later this year, an association agreement on the
establishment of trade zones with the EU. Armenia is also negotiating
a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement (DCFTA) with the
European bloc. A few months ago President Serge Sarkissyan announced
that following the recent presidential elections he would enact the
reforms the DCFTA requires.
While about 40% of Armenia's trade is with the former Soviet Republics
(with Russia responsible for the lion's share), nearly 60% is with
Western Europe. Signaling which way Yerevan is headed, at a European
People's Party gathering last year, Sarkissian said: "The Armenian
people, with their history, culture and modern aspirations are an
indivisible part of the European Civilization."
Keeping its options open, Armenia has also been building closer ties
with the United States and NATO. Armenia and the US have signed
a memorandum of energy cooperation which some observers consider
a milestone for their relations. While it has reduced economic and
humanitarian assistance to Armenia, Washington has made a commitment
to ensure the security of the ancient and perhaps vulnerable Medzamor
nuclear power plant for the next 10 years. There's also talk that the
US would provide funds for the construction of a second power plant
and boost trade and investment. Of course, one can say Washington
is concerned in the safety of Medzamor because its ally-Turkey-has
complained that a Medzamor accident could send toxic emissions to
Turkey. American Ambassador John Heffern, who in December, pulled a
diplomatic gaffe during a tour of US Armenian institutions when he
said "Armenia is a long way to nowhere", has announced that Washington
would push major US high-tech companies to invest in Armenia and to
work with Armenian high-tech companies.
Armenia has also curtsied to the West by sending soldiers to Iraq,
Afghanistan and to Kosovo, and by attending NATO meetings. A few
months ago NATO's Secretary-General Anders Rogh Rasmussen visited
Armenia. Acknowledging Armenia's delicate diplomatic balance, last
year Erik Rubin, deputy state secretary-assistant, said: "The United
States is not against Armenia's cooperation with Russia, but on the
contrary would like cooperation and the development of multinational
relations." Adding a footnote to Rubin's statement, Ambassador Heffern
was quoted as saying that a country can have more than one partner.
Other US voices have echoed the same sentiments by saying that the
US is not trying to create a platform in Armenia equal to that of
Russia's. Ahem.
So far Armenia has managed to be on friendly terms with three
major political-military-economic blocs. Perhaps Armenia has been
successful because of the dexterity of its diplomats. Perhaps it
has been successful because Armenia is Russia's only friend in the
South Caucasus and because the West doesn't want to get into a fight
for a tiny and impoverished country which, since independence, has
lost perhaps 25% of its people to emigration. Perhaps the US doesn't
want to push Armenia already aggrieved over Washington's refusal to
acknowledge the Genocide or Hillary Clinton's high-handed shenanigans
to force Armenia to sign the notorious Protocols. And perhaps the
US is not leaning on Armenia for its close ties with Iran because
it realizes Yerevan has no option, and Armenia has to rely on Iran
because Turkey-America's ally--continues to blockade Armenia while
engaged in far greater trade with Iran than Armenia does.
If anything, international politics is a permanent cauldron. Today's
friend is tomorrow's enemy, and the reverse. Strategies can change
within days and diplomatic-economic-military necessities can
make strange bedfellows. Armenia is forced to play a multi-board
military-political-economic chess game on geographically separated
boards. As a nation of chess champions, this is game Armenia can play
as well as anyone. The people responsible for Armenia's multi-vector
foreign policy face a four-dimensional M.C. Escher drawing every
working day. The question is how long can they remain in the
multi-dimensional game and win. Turkey and Israel have been playing
the same game for decades, but Armenia doesn't have an understanding
Uncle Sam or Uncle Ivan in its corner. Perhaps the best way to walk the
tri-rope is to increase its value to the big powers. Turkey literally
gets away with murder and isn't rebuked by Washington because Ankara is
perceived to be an important ally. Switzerland, which has negligible
resources, is one of the most prosperous countries in Europe because
the world finds the tiny Alpian country useful.
Making itself an asset to the East and West is a tall order for
Armenia, but it has to be done. Otherwise, "remote", landlocked, and
small Armenia will remain poor and embattled: a permanent basket case.
That, after the Turkbaijan belligerence, is the biggest challenge
the Armenian government's foreign policy faces.
Armenia has to devise a unique preposition which will end Armenia's
isolation. It could be the establishment of an Armenian Silicon
Valley, on pharmaceuticals, on manufacturing high-end medical
equipment, on research and development in the nanotechnologies. In
all these areas, the Diaspora can play an important role. There's
multi-billion-dollar talent pool in the Diaspora, in addition to
knowledge about international business. Armenia has to tap this
"natural" resource. An international conference in Yerevan where
Armenian scientists and businessmen from the Diaspora and Armenia
can meet to devise a grand economic revival plan would go a long
way to bring Armenia out of its shell and stop the destructive
emigration. We have to believe that we are a ONE NATION and that
Armenia is our homeland whether we live in the shadow of Ararat or
hang the glorious mountain's photograph in our living rooms thousands
of miles away from Hayastan.
(To Continue... Part II: Armenia, Russia and the US).
http://www.keghart.com/Editorial-FP1
Part I
Keghart.com Editorial Board, 17 March 2013
One of the major-if not the main-theme of Armenia's long history is its
involuntary role as a buffer state and its consequent involvement in
conflicts between the East and the West. The Sumerians, Assyrians,
Scythians, Achaemenids, Parthians, Sassanids, Arab Caliphates,
Mamluks, Persians (again), and Turks in the East have all battled on
Armenian soil against the Greeks, Macedonians, Romans, Byzantium, the
Crusaders, Russians, France, and the Soviets in the West to dominate or
to occupy Armenia. When unable to do so, they've tried to force us to
be their allies. These titanic conflicts between empires of the East
and the West have inevitably turned Armenia into a bloody arena or
"grvakhntsor" as Armenians ("the apple/prize of the fight") say.
More than 2,500 years after these dynastic duels of the empires began,
there seems nothing is new under the sun. In 2013 Armenian rulers
face foreign policy challenges which are identical to the ones their
forefather kings had to tackle two-and-a-half millennia ago.
After the 70-year Soviet sojourn, when Kremlin-ruled Armenia was
not in the international diplomatic push and pull, Yerevan is back
in the great game. While Soviet Union has sunk into the dustbin of
history, Russia remains a superpower in the post-Cold War world
and justifiably feels threatened by NATO. To fend off Western
encroachments, post-Soviet Moscow engineered the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) for the Commonwealth of Independent
States (some of the former Soviet republics). Armenia is a CSTO
partner. The military/political bloc guarantees the security of
Armenia, particularly from Turkish encroachments.
To further buttress its shrinking areas of influence around its
perimeter, Moscow in recent years, promoted a new entity called Customs
Union. President Vladimir Putin would like to see the Customs Union
evolve into a closely-knit Eurasian Union (EU) of the former Soviet
republics (not be confused with the European EU). The Russian ruler
exerted tremendous pressure on Armenia to join the Customs Union. To
"persuade" Armenia to join the Customs Union, Russia also threatened
to use its gas as geopolitical weapon, courted Turkey, and sold
weapons to Baku. But Yerevan resisted Putin's blandishments and made
overtures to the European Union. A mid-March Sarkissian and Putin
meeting didn't bear any fruit. In fact, no statements were issued
following their discussions.
Armenia considers the Eurasian Union an arcane political model of a
new-and shaky--Russian empire. If it joins the Customs Union-Eurasian
Union, Armenia would also violate its constitution, limit its
sovereignty and likely become a vassal of Moscow. Only Belarus and
Kazakhstan have joined the Customs Union.
Armenia has made no secret to Russia that it wants to establish a
new relationship based on hard strategic and diplomatic interests,
rather than on the sentimental historical ties and the medals Armenian
soldiers won during WWII. Not to be caught in Russia's embrace--or
more likely in the Russian bear's chocke-hold, Armenia has been
negotiating with the European Common Market. Yerevan wants to retain
the security its CSTO partnership provides, but at the same time
to integrate with the European Union and develop closer ties with
the United States. European Union spokesmen such as Security Chief
Catherine Ashton have stated that Armenia's desired integration with
the EU is incompatible with any involvement in Moscow's efforts to
cobble together a band of ex-Soviet friends.
Armenia now holds regular meetings with the European Commission
for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy, Armenian diplomats
frequently meet the various European integration committees and Yerevan
is expected to sign, later this year, an association agreement on the
establishment of trade zones with the EU. Armenia is also negotiating
a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement (DCFTA) with the
European bloc. A few months ago President Serge Sarkissyan announced
that following the recent presidential elections he would enact the
reforms the DCFTA requires.
While about 40% of Armenia's trade is with the former Soviet Republics
(with Russia responsible for the lion's share), nearly 60% is with
Western Europe. Signaling which way Yerevan is headed, at a European
People's Party gathering last year, Sarkissian said: "The Armenian
people, with their history, culture and modern aspirations are an
indivisible part of the European Civilization."
Keeping its options open, Armenia has also been building closer ties
with the United States and NATO. Armenia and the US have signed
a memorandum of energy cooperation which some observers consider
a milestone for their relations. While it has reduced economic and
humanitarian assistance to Armenia, Washington has made a commitment
to ensure the security of the ancient and perhaps vulnerable Medzamor
nuclear power plant for the next 10 years. There's also talk that the
US would provide funds for the construction of a second power plant
and boost trade and investment. Of course, one can say Washington
is concerned in the safety of Medzamor because its ally-Turkey-has
complained that a Medzamor accident could send toxic emissions to
Turkey. American Ambassador John Heffern, who in December, pulled a
diplomatic gaffe during a tour of US Armenian institutions when he
said "Armenia is a long way to nowhere", has announced that Washington
would push major US high-tech companies to invest in Armenia and to
work with Armenian high-tech companies.
Armenia has also curtsied to the West by sending soldiers to Iraq,
Afghanistan and to Kosovo, and by attending NATO meetings. A few
months ago NATO's Secretary-General Anders Rogh Rasmussen visited
Armenia. Acknowledging Armenia's delicate diplomatic balance, last
year Erik Rubin, deputy state secretary-assistant, said: "The United
States is not against Armenia's cooperation with Russia, but on the
contrary would like cooperation and the development of multinational
relations." Adding a footnote to Rubin's statement, Ambassador Heffern
was quoted as saying that a country can have more than one partner.
Other US voices have echoed the same sentiments by saying that the
US is not trying to create a platform in Armenia equal to that of
Russia's. Ahem.
So far Armenia has managed to be on friendly terms with three
major political-military-economic blocs. Perhaps Armenia has been
successful because of the dexterity of its diplomats. Perhaps it
has been successful because Armenia is Russia's only friend in the
South Caucasus and because the West doesn't want to get into a fight
for a tiny and impoverished country which, since independence, has
lost perhaps 25% of its people to emigration. Perhaps the US doesn't
want to push Armenia already aggrieved over Washington's refusal to
acknowledge the Genocide or Hillary Clinton's high-handed shenanigans
to force Armenia to sign the notorious Protocols. And perhaps the
US is not leaning on Armenia for its close ties with Iran because
it realizes Yerevan has no option, and Armenia has to rely on Iran
because Turkey-America's ally--continues to blockade Armenia while
engaged in far greater trade with Iran than Armenia does.
If anything, international politics is a permanent cauldron. Today's
friend is tomorrow's enemy, and the reverse. Strategies can change
within days and diplomatic-economic-military necessities can
make strange bedfellows. Armenia is forced to play a multi-board
military-political-economic chess game on geographically separated
boards. As a nation of chess champions, this is game Armenia can play
as well as anyone. The people responsible for Armenia's multi-vector
foreign policy face a four-dimensional M.C. Escher drawing every
working day. The question is how long can they remain in the
multi-dimensional game and win. Turkey and Israel have been playing
the same game for decades, but Armenia doesn't have an understanding
Uncle Sam or Uncle Ivan in its corner. Perhaps the best way to walk the
tri-rope is to increase its value to the big powers. Turkey literally
gets away with murder and isn't rebuked by Washington because Ankara is
perceived to be an important ally. Switzerland, which has negligible
resources, is one of the most prosperous countries in Europe because
the world finds the tiny Alpian country useful.
Making itself an asset to the East and West is a tall order for
Armenia, but it has to be done. Otherwise, "remote", landlocked, and
small Armenia will remain poor and embattled: a permanent basket case.
That, after the Turkbaijan belligerence, is the biggest challenge
the Armenian government's foreign policy faces.
Armenia has to devise a unique preposition which will end Armenia's
isolation. It could be the establishment of an Armenian Silicon
Valley, on pharmaceuticals, on manufacturing high-end medical
equipment, on research and development in the nanotechnologies. In
all these areas, the Diaspora can play an important role. There's
multi-billion-dollar talent pool in the Diaspora, in addition to
knowledge about international business. Armenia has to tap this
"natural" resource. An international conference in Yerevan where
Armenian scientists and businessmen from the Diaspora and Armenia
can meet to devise a grand economic revival plan would go a long
way to bring Armenia out of its shell and stop the destructive
emigration. We have to believe that we are a ONE NATION and that
Armenia is our homeland whether we live in the shadow of Ararat or
hang the glorious mountain's photograph in our living rooms thousands
of miles away from Hayastan.
(To Continue... Part II: Armenia, Russia and the US).
http://www.keghart.com/Editorial-FP1