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ARMENIA'S SHRINKING WORKFORCE
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
IWPR Caucasus Reporting #680
March 25 2013
Net emigration caused by lack of jobs, but smaller labour pool could
itself hamper economic growth
By Vahe Harutyunyan - Caucasus
Recent figures confirm that Armenians are continuing to leave their
country in droves because the economy remains in such poor shape. A
particular concern is that the exodus includes not just unskilled
labourers but also professionals who see no future for themselves
in Armenia.
In January and February, 22,000 more people left Armenia than arrived
there. Many of those now heading off to Russia or other countries are
planning to stay only for the warmer months when work is available,
and then return home for the winter. But some will stay on and settle
down, while others are already set on emigrating permanently.
Ruben Yeganyan, head of the Armenian Social Demographic Initiative
group, notes that officials have long insisted that the bulk of
migration is seasonal, but he says this is not borne out by the facts.
~SIf you look at the annual figures from the State Migration Service,
it~Rs evident that several tens of thousands of people fail to return
to Armenia each year,~T he said.
The migration service has calculated that 180,000 people emigrated
permanently just in the five years to the end of 2012. That is a
significant population loss for a country with under three million
inhabitants.
~SIt~Rs a catastrophe for Armenia, whatever the reasons for this
emigration ~V political, economic or what you might call lack of
justice,~T Yeganyan said.
Armen Badalyan, a researcher at the Centre for Political Studies,
said emigration now encompassed all social tiers, not just the poorest.
~SYou now see people from the middle class, if not wealthier,
emigrating. They want to leave Armenia to have a career, start a
business or get an education abroad. The number of such people is
rising from year to year,~T he said.
Gagik Makaryan, who heads the Union of Employers, says the drain on
labour is a real risk to private-sector growth.
~SIn private, businessmen the trade, services and manufacturing sectors
will speak openly of their fears for the demographic situation. If
the population falls year after year, it will have a negative impact,
whatever business you~Rre in,~T Makaryan said.
Government officials insist they are taking action. In a recent speech
to parliament, Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan said a continued drive
for overall economic growth would create the jobs needed to retain
the working population.
However, Armenak Chatinyan, economic correspondent for the Orakarg
daily, questions how real the growth figures claimed by the government
are.
Officially, the Armenian economy grew by 7.2 per cent year-on-year
in 2012, and by 4.8 per cent the previous year. Yet those two years
saw emigration of 86,000 people.
~SI know one thing,~T Chatinyan said. ~SIf the economy is growing
and people~Rs lives are improving, they should not be leaving the
country en masse.
Data from Armenia~Rs official statistical agency show that one-third
of the population still lives in poverty, while the unemployment rate
stood at 16 per cent at the end of last year. Despite claims of a
growing economy, poverty levels appear to be increasing, particularly
in rural areas.
Norik Grigoryan, 45, is typical of the army of seasonal rather than
permanent migrants. He has spent much of the last decade and a half
working in Russia, but always returning to his village of Tsovinar
in the Gegharkunik region.
He is profoundly depressed about the future of rural Armenia, saying,
~SThere~Rs nothing left for the peasants. We~Rre caught between the
banks and the oligarchs. That~Rs why there is so much untilled land
in Armenia while the peasants go abroad to earn enough to eat.~T
~SYou cannot feed a family by farming alone,~T Grigoryan
explained. ~SOur government is doing absolutely nothing to make
farming profitable for peasants like us. Loans are expensive, and
the purchasing companies arrange things among themselves to offer us
low prices. On top of that, we have to pay for irrigation water and
everything else.~T
Vahe Harutyunyan is a freelance journalist in Armenia.
http://iwpr.net/report-news/armenias-shrinking-workforce
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
IWPR Caucasus Reporting #680
March 25 2013
Net emigration caused by lack of jobs, but smaller labour pool could
itself hamper economic growth
By Vahe Harutyunyan - Caucasus
Recent figures confirm that Armenians are continuing to leave their
country in droves because the economy remains in such poor shape. A
particular concern is that the exodus includes not just unskilled
labourers but also professionals who see no future for themselves
in Armenia.
In January and February, 22,000 more people left Armenia than arrived
there. Many of those now heading off to Russia or other countries are
planning to stay only for the warmer months when work is available,
and then return home for the winter. But some will stay on and settle
down, while others are already set on emigrating permanently.
Ruben Yeganyan, head of the Armenian Social Demographic Initiative
group, notes that officials have long insisted that the bulk of
migration is seasonal, but he says this is not borne out by the facts.
~SIf you look at the annual figures from the State Migration Service,
it~Rs evident that several tens of thousands of people fail to return
to Armenia each year,~T he said.
The migration service has calculated that 180,000 people emigrated
permanently just in the five years to the end of 2012. That is a
significant population loss for a country with under three million
inhabitants.
~SIt~Rs a catastrophe for Armenia, whatever the reasons for this
emigration ~V political, economic or what you might call lack of
justice,~T Yeganyan said.
Armen Badalyan, a researcher at the Centre for Political Studies,
said emigration now encompassed all social tiers, not just the poorest.
~SYou now see people from the middle class, if not wealthier,
emigrating. They want to leave Armenia to have a career, start a
business or get an education abroad. The number of such people is
rising from year to year,~T he said.
Gagik Makaryan, who heads the Union of Employers, says the drain on
labour is a real risk to private-sector growth.
~SIn private, businessmen the trade, services and manufacturing sectors
will speak openly of their fears for the demographic situation. If
the population falls year after year, it will have a negative impact,
whatever business you~Rre in,~T Makaryan said.
Government officials insist they are taking action. In a recent speech
to parliament, Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan said a continued drive
for overall economic growth would create the jobs needed to retain
the working population.
However, Armenak Chatinyan, economic correspondent for the Orakarg
daily, questions how real the growth figures claimed by the government
are.
Officially, the Armenian economy grew by 7.2 per cent year-on-year
in 2012, and by 4.8 per cent the previous year. Yet those two years
saw emigration of 86,000 people.
~SI know one thing,~T Chatinyan said. ~SIf the economy is growing
and people~Rs lives are improving, they should not be leaving the
country en masse.
Data from Armenia~Rs official statistical agency show that one-third
of the population still lives in poverty, while the unemployment rate
stood at 16 per cent at the end of last year. Despite claims of a
growing economy, poverty levels appear to be increasing, particularly
in rural areas.
Norik Grigoryan, 45, is typical of the army of seasonal rather than
permanent migrants. He has spent much of the last decade and a half
working in Russia, but always returning to his village of Tsovinar
in the Gegharkunik region.
He is profoundly depressed about the future of rural Armenia, saying,
~SThere~Rs nothing left for the peasants. We~Rre caught between the
banks and the oligarchs. That~Rs why there is so much untilled land
in Armenia while the peasants go abroad to earn enough to eat.~T
~SYou cannot feed a family by farming alone,~T Grigoryan
explained. ~SOur government is doing absolutely nothing to make
farming profitable for peasants like us. Loans are expensive, and
the purchasing companies arrange things among themselves to offer us
low prices. On top of that, we have to pay for irrigation water and
everything else.~T
Vahe Harutyunyan is a freelance journalist in Armenia.
http://iwpr.net/report-news/armenias-shrinking-workforce
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress