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Israel, Turkey and gas
By JPOST EDITORIAL
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editorials/Israel-Turkey-and-gas-313566
05/18/2013 23:09
It is becoming evident that a veiled agenda underpinned the recent Turkish
willingness to consider a rapprochement with Israel.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan. Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
Word is that both Israel and Turkey are seriously entertaining the notion
of constructing an undersea pipeline to deliver Israeli natural gas to
Turkey and, perhaps, hence to Europe.
The Turks reportedly have expressed willingness to foot part of the
estimated $2 billion bill. Such pipelines exist elsewhere in the world,
most notably from Russia and from Norway.
It is becoming evident that a veiled agenda underpinned the recent Turkish
willingness to consider a rapprochement with Israel. Turkey, it appears,
hankers after Israeli gas. The perceived Turkish softening was fueled by
Israel's offshore gas discoveries, a fact which nevertheless did not impel
Ankara to forgo humiliating Israel.
Turkey grows increasingly dependent on Russia for its gas supplies. This
hardly instills joy in Turkish hearts, especially considering the fact that
Moscow and Ankara are at direct loggerheads over Syria. Israel, having
repeatedly proven itself both reliable and exceedingly pliable, is now
regarded as a safer bet for Turkish gas supplies - certainly safer than
such alternatives to Russia as Iran. Moreover, Israeli gas could be had at
a significantly lower cost.
But this is not all as rosy as meets the eye. Whereas Israel is
incontrovertibly a dependable business partner, can we can count on Turkey?
Still searing are memories of our own gas purchases from Egypt. The Muslim
Brotherhood takeover in Cairo abruptly terminated this mutually beneficial
deal. There is no guarantee that Turkey would not go the same route,
particularly given its about-turn against Israel a few years ago and the
festering danger that it too might be a candidate for an even more extreme
Islamic transformation than the one it has already undergone.
In other words, the mooted arrangement hinges almost entirely on Turkish
goodwill, and that goodwill can by no stretch of the imagination be taken
for granted.
Then, as was the case with Egypt, there is the matter of the pipeline's
security. Israel's gas purchases from Egypt were doomed when the Sinai
pipeline was serially sabotaged. Can a pipeline that runs parallel to the
Lebanese and Syrian coasts be assumed to be invulnerable? Last, but hardly
least, is Cyprus. A deal with Turkey would undermine cooperation already
fostered with the Cypriot Greeks, whose own gas discoveries are anathema to
Ankara which occupies the northern parts of the island. Do we really want
to ditch Cyprus in favor of an unpredictable and hardly friendly business
partner? Pipelines can also be built in the Cypriot direction and another
possibility is liquefying the gas and transporting it to Europe by tankers.
It may be more expensive but this would be offset by the removal of
pipeline security concerns. Also, Cyprus has allocated land for a
liquefaction plant, which would relieve Israel of another safety headache.
There is of course a wholly different alternative - avoiding exports to
Europe altogether and with them the undesirable competition with the
ruthless Russians.
Israel can earmark its exports for the Far East, where it can net far
greater revenue. This would mean a pipeline to Eilat, a gas liquefaction
plant in the South and shipping therefrom in tankers.
In short, Israel is not without export alternatives.
Attractive as reinforced ties and renewed cooperation with Turkey might be,
we need to resist temptation.
Turkey's rulers are closely allied to the Muslim Brotherhood and that bodes
ill for Israel.
If approved, the gas pipeline could prove one of Israel's biggest-ever
strategic errors.
We cannot entrust this prized export - one that could overhaul our
financial viability - to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's hands. The thought that he
would be granted an extortionist stranglehold over our economic future
should send shivers down all our spines.
To this must be added the question of our national honor. We might belittle
its importance, but this is not how national honor is viewed in the Islamic
world, of which Turkey is a part.
We would do much better either by avoiding Europe as an export destination
or by teaming up with non-Muslim partners who are not hostile and who need
our business.
By JPOST EDITORIAL
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editorials/Israel-Turkey-and-gas-313566
05/18/2013 23:09
It is becoming evident that a veiled agenda underpinned the recent Turkish
willingness to consider a rapprochement with Israel.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan. Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
Word is that both Israel and Turkey are seriously entertaining the notion
of constructing an undersea pipeline to deliver Israeli natural gas to
Turkey and, perhaps, hence to Europe.
The Turks reportedly have expressed willingness to foot part of the
estimated $2 billion bill. Such pipelines exist elsewhere in the world,
most notably from Russia and from Norway.
It is becoming evident that a veiled agenda underpinned the recent Turkish
willingness to consider a rapprochement with Israel. Turkey, it appears,
hankers after Israeli gas. The perceived Turkish softening was fueled by
Israel's offshore gas discoveries, a fact which nevertheless did not impel
Ankara to forgo humiliating Israel.
Turkey grows increasingly dependent on Russia for its gas supplies. This
hardly instills joy in Turkish hearts, especially considering the fact that
Moscow and Ankara are at direct loggerheads over Syria. Israel, having
repeatedly proven itself both reliable and exceedingly pliable, is now
regarded as a safer bet for Turkish gas supplies - certainly safer than
such alternatives to Russia as Iran. Moreover, Israeli gas could be had at
a significantly lower cost.
But this is not all as rosy as meets the eye. Whereas Israel is
incontrovertibly a dependable business partner, can we can count on Turkey?
Still searing are memories of our own gas purchases from Egypt. The Muslim
Brotherhood takeover in Cairo abruptly terminated this mutually beneficial
deal. There is no guarantee that Turkey would not go the same route,
particularly given its about-turn against Israel a few years ago and the
festering danger that it too might be a candidate for an even more extreme
Islamic transformation than the one it has already undergone.
In other words, the mooted arrangement hinges almost entirely on Turkish
goodwill, and that goodwill can by no stretch of the imagination be taken
for granted.
Then, as was the case with Egypt, there is the matter of the pipeline's
security. Israel's gas purchases from Egypt were doomed when the Sinai
pipeline was serially sabotaged. Can a pipeline that runs parallel to the
Lebanese and Syrian coasts be assumed to be invulnerable? Last, but hardly
least, is Cyprus. A deal with Turkey would undermine cooperation already
fostered with the Cypriot Greeks, whose own gas discoveries are anathema to
Ankara which occupies the northern parts of the island. Do we really want
to ditch Cyprus in favor of an unpredictable and hardly friendly business
partner? Pipelines can also be built in the Cypriot direction and another
possibility is liquefying the gas and transporting it to Europe by tankers.
It may be more expensive but this would be offset by the removal of
pipeline security concerns. Also, Cyprus has allocated land for a
liquefaction plant, which would relieve Israel of another safety headache.
There is of course a wholly different alternative - avoiding exports to
Europe altogether and with them the undesirable competition with the
ruthless Russians.
Israel can earmark its exports for the Far East, where it can net far
greater revenue. This would mean a pipeline to Eilat, a gas liquefaction
plant in the South and shipping therefrom in tankers.
In short, Israel is not without export alternatives.
Attractive as reinforced ties and renewed cooperation with Turkey might be,
we need to resist temptation.
Turkey's rulers are closely allied to the Muslim Brotherhood and that bodes
ill for Israel.
If approved, the gas pipeline could prove one of Israel's biggest-ever
strategic errors.
We cannot entrust this prized export - one that could overhaul our
financial viability - to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's hands. The thought that he
would be granted an extortionist stranglehold over our economic future
should send shivers down all our spines.
To this must be added the question of our national honor. We might belittle
its importance, but this is not how national honor is viewed in the Islamic
world, of which Turkey is a part.
We would do much better either by avoiding Europe as an export destination
or by teaming up with non-Muslim partners who are not hostile and who need
our business.