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EASTERN PARTNERSHIP: EXPECTATIONS AT VILNIUS SUMMIT
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Nov 20 2013
20 November 2013 - 10:51am
By Orkhan Sattarov, head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
Less than a week is left before the start of the summit of the Eastern
Partnership, a program of the European Union to develop ties with
post-Soviet states. Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia
and Georgia want fast political association and further economic
integration with the EU, but each has its own intensity level.
Professor Gunter Verheugen, ex-Vice President of the European
Commission and one of the architects of the European Neighbourhood
Policy, has described his vision of prospects of each partner.
Azerbaijan
"Azerbaijan shows great interest in cooperation with the EU, just as
the EU is interested in close partnership with Azerbaijan. However,
the strategic partnership should not be limited by cooperation in
the field of energy," said Ferheugen. According to him, full-fledged
strategic partnership should include modernization of the political
system, economy and transfer of values. The problem of energy should
not be separated from the range of other fields of cooperation.
Ferheugen has given a skeptical evaluation of the chances for
Azerbaijan and the EU to sign an agreement on formation of a deep
and all-encompassing trade because Azerbaijan is not a member of the
WTO for its own reasons. In Verheugen's point of view, participants
of the Vilnius summit will need to find an intermediate solution
for all fields of cooperation. Only then should they make any step
towards signing an association agreement. At this stage, they could,
for example, simplify the visa regime between the EU and Azerbaijan.
Verheugen noted serious political problems in Azerbaijan, namely the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. According to the professor, the EU always
bases on the principle of territorial integrity of states. This is
valid for Azerbaijan in the context of the Karabakh conflict. The
European Union correlates its actions with principles of the Helsinki
Accords of 1975. States refrain from using force and forced changes
of borderlines. Verheugen urged the EU to be more active in settling
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenia
It seemed this summer that Yerevan and Brussels would sign the
association agreement in Vilnius. However, Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan announced plans to take the Eurasian integration path, not
the European one, after a meeting with Russian President Vladimir
Putin in September. In the words of Verheugen, "Armenia announced its
determination to join the Customs Union, which is in fact a refusal to
sign an association agreement with the European Union. Thus, there are
no prospects for Armenia to sign an agreement on formation of a deep
and all-encompassing free trade zone between Armenia and the EU. The
outlined programs for support of Armenia are pointless now. At the
same time, it would be wrong to 'punish' Yerevan. They need to come to
understanding of the new format of cooperation with Armenia, sending
it a signal that the EU wants to continue the dialogue with the state."
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will not fly to Vilnius.
Instead, he is sending an official from the Belarusian Foreign
Ministry. "There has been no serious progress in the dialogue with this
country so far. There is direct dialogue with the NGO sector, not the
government. In this context, Belarus, despite the problematic relations
between Brussels and Minsk in the political layer, becomes a more
important trade partner of the EU every year. Moreover, membership of
Belarus in the Customs Union makes the country a window for Europe in
the context of cooperation of the EU and the CU," Verheugen believes.
Europe has urged the Vilnius summit to be used to unblock relations
with Minsk. The EU imposed sanctions against Belarus for 'violation
of human rights and persecution of opposition'. No intentions to use
the summit to improve relations with Minsk have been confirmed.
Georgia
Georgia will be represented by new President Georgy Margvelashvili in
Vilnius. He plans to sign the association agreement with the EU. But
how will the events evolve then is unclear because observers do not
rule out harsh steps of new Georgian authorities against the old ones.
If ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili goes to jail, Tbilisi may have
problems with the EU, like Ukraine with Yulia Timoshenko. Nonetheless,
according to Verheugen, "The EU and Georgia go step-by-step towards
signing the association agreement. It will be signed in Vilnius." Yet,
the politician expressed surprise that the term selective justice is
used for Georgia the same way as with Ukraine.
Moldova
Moldova has the best chances for association with the EU. "In case
of Moldova, signing of the association agreement is very expectable.
There are high chances that the visa regime will be simplified by
the end of the year," stated Verheugen. Thus, Kishinev would be the
first to gain the right for visa-free visits to Europe.
Ukraine
The signing of the association agreement with Kiev should be the
highlight of the Vilnius summit. According to Verheugen, "there are
technical prerequisites for signing of the association agreement with
the EU. At this moment, questions of Brussels come down to whether the
critical remarks found satisfactory solutions. In 2013, Kiev managed
to achieve significant progress in the field of legal statehood.
Despite the fact that most members of the EU are optimistic about
signing of the association agreement with Ukraine in Vilnius, the
problem of Yulia Timoshenko and related criticism of Kiev for selective
justice has not found a solution yet. Berlin made a mistake when it
tied long-term prospects of its eastern policy with the problem of
one person, Yulia Timoshenko."
Verheugen condemned the 'gas lever' Russia used against Ukraine in
order to keep Kiev away from signing the EU association agreement. "We
cannot afford new trade wars in Europe," assumes Verheugen. Still, the
German professor noted the need to develop normal working relations
between Brussels and Moscow. In his words, the European Union should
interest Russia in constructive cooperation. Without Russia, there is
no solution to conflicts in member-states of the Eastern Partnership.
Formation of common geoeconomic space from Dublin to Vladivostok is
not an illusion, it is a real prospect that needs maximum efforts
from both Russia and the EU.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/47760.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Nov 20 2013
20 November 2013 - 10:51am
By Orkhan Sattarov, head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
Less than a week is left before the start of the summit of the Eastern
Partnership, a program of the European Union to develop ties with
post-Soviet states. Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia
and Georgia want fast political association and further economic
integration with the EU, but each has its own intensity level.
Professor Gunter Verheugen, ex-Vice President of the European
Commission and one of the architects of the European Neighbourhood
Policy, has described his vision of prospects of each partner.
Azerbaijan
"Azerbaijan shows great interest in cooperation with the EU, just as
the EU is interested in close partnership with Azerbaijan. However,
the strategic partnership should not be limited by cooperation in
the field of energy," said Ferheugen. According to him, full-fledged
strategic partnership should include modernization of the political
system, economy and transfer of values. The problem of energy should
not be separated from the range of other fields of cooperation.
Ferheugen has given a skeptical evaluation of the chances for
Azerbaijan and the EU to sign an agreement on formation of a deep
and all-encompassing trade because Azerbaijan is not a member of the
WTO for its own reasons. In Verheugen's point of view, participants
of the Vilnius summit will need to find an intermediate solution
for all fields of cooperation. Only then should they make any step
towards signing an association agreement. At this stage, they could,
for example, simplify the visa regime between the EU and Azerbaijan.
Verheugen noted serious political problems in Azerbaijan, namely the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. According to the professor, the EU always
bases on the principle of territorial integrity of states. This is
valid for Azerbaijan in the context of the Karabakh conflict. The
European Union correlates its actions with principles of the Helsinki
Accords of 1975. States refrain from using force and forced changes
of borderlines. Verheugen urged the EU to be more active in settling
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenia
It seemed this summer that Yerevan and Brussels would sign the
association agreement in Vilnius. However, Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan announced plans to take the Eurasian integration path, not
the European one, after a meeting with Russian President Vladimir
Putin in September. In the words of Verheugen, "Armenia announced its
determination to join the Customs Union, which is in fact a refusal to
sign an association agreement with the European Union. Thus, there are
no prospects for Armenia to sign an agreement on formation of a deep
and all-encompassing free trade zone between Armenia and the EU. The
outlined programs for support of Armenia are pointless now. At the
same time, it would be wrong to 'punish' Yerevan. They need to come to
understanding of the new format of cooperation with Armenia, sending
it a signal that the EU wants to continue the dialogue with the state."
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will not fly to Vilnius.
Instead, he is sending an official from the Belarusian Foreign
Ministry. "There has been no serious progress in the dialogue with this
country so far. There is direct dialogue with the NGO sector, not the
government. In this context, Belarus, despite the problematic relations
between Brussels and Minsk in the political layer, becomes a more
important trade partner of the EU every year. Moreover, membership of
Belarus in the Customs Union makes the country a window for Europe in
the context of cooperation of the EU and the CU," Verheugen believes.
Europe has urged the Vilnius summit to be used to unblock relations
with Minsk. The EU imposed sanctions against Belarus for 'violation
of human rights and persecution of opposition'. No intentions to use
the summit to improve relations with Minsk have been confirmed.
Georgia
Georgia will be represented by new President Georgy Margvelashvili in
Vilnius. He plans to sign the association agreement with the EU. But
how will the events evolve then is unclear because observers do not
rule out harsh steps of new Georgian authorities against the old ones.
If ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili goes to jail, Tbilisi may have
problems with the EU, like Ukraine with Yulia Timoshenko. Nonetheless,
according to Verheugen, "The EU and Georgia go step-by-step towards
signing the association agreement. It will be signed in Vilnius." Yet,
the politician expressed surprise that the term selective justice is
used for Georgia the same way as with Ukraine.
Moldova
Moldova has the best chances for association with the EU. "In case
of Moldova, signing of the association agreement is very expectable.
There are high chances that the visa regime will be simplified by
the end of the year," stated Verheugen. Thus, Kishinev would be the
first to gain the right for visa-free visits to Europe.
Ukraine
The signing of the association agreement with Kiev should be the
highlight of the Vilnius summit. According to Verheugen, "there are
technical prerequisites for signing of the association agreement with
the EU. At this moment, questions of Brussels come down to whether the
critical remarks found satisfactory solutions. In 2013, Kiev managed
to achieve significant progress in the field of legal statehood.
Despite the fact that most members of the EU are optimistic about
signing of the association agreement with Ukraine in Vilnius, the
problem of Yulia Timoshenko and related criticism of Kiev for selective
justice has not found a solution yet. Berlin made a mistake when it
tied long-term prospects of its eastern policy with the problem of
one person, Yulia Timoshenko."
Verheugen condemned the 'gas lever' Russia used against Ukraine in
order to keep Kiev away from signing the EU association agreement. "We
cannot afford new trade wars in Europe," assumes Verheugen. Still, the
German professor noted the need to develop normal working relations
between Brussels and Moscow. In his words, the European Union should
interest Russia in constructive cooperation. Without Russia, there is
no solution to conflicts in member-states of the Eastern Partnership.
Formation of common geoeconomic space from Dublin to Vladivostok is
not an illusion, it is a real prospect that needs maximum efforts
from both Russia and the EU.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/47760.html