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WHAT KIND OF WAR IS ARMENIA GETTING READY FOR?
Serzh Sargsyan held a meeting of the National Security Council
yesterday and, according to the official message, "Discussed were
issues related to the provisional military and political situation
around Armenia and activities of the highest state echelon during
the adoption of military and political decisions."
Earlier this spring Serzh Sargsyan announced that public administration
must be built around the armed forces, the army must be the core. Prior
to the presidential election Armenia adopted a law enabling the use
of the army in domestic affairs in case the efforts of other law
enforcement agencies are not sufficient. In this context, the meeting
of the National Security Council seems to be the first step towards
the application of this law. What is this, and what are the internal
and external components of this situation?
Opinions were expressed then that Serzh Sargsyan is trying to use
the army to strengthen his foothold in domestic affairs, actually
legalizing the use of the army in internal affairs. This circumstance
may have had a role in Armenia's domestic processes in both the
electoral stage and post-electoral developments when the so-called
key political forces rejected participation in the election.
In the post-electoral stage the key issue on the political agenda was
the foreign political bias of Armenia, in which context it was stated
that if association with the EU is chosen, Russia will provoke a coup
in Armenia. It was also said to be a military coup.
Serzh Sargsyan chose the Customs Union that, however, does not seem to
have addressed any issue, whether domestic or foreign. The prospects
of the Customs Union and Armenian-Russian relations remain vague,
so do the domestic affairs. In this situation Serzh Sargsyan is seen
taking a time out to move on to his plans. In particular, he is going
to change the role and functions of the law enforcement bodies. He
has already established a united body of investigations and appointed
an insider as prosecutor general. He is thus bringing into being the
concept on building the state around the army.
What war is Serzh Sargsyan preparing for, domestic or foreign?
Apparently, both because the path of developments in our region rules
out a "local" one. The Karabakh issue was particularly manipulated
by some Russia and Armenia-based circles within the framework of
European integration. In both its active and passive stages it has
been and remains one of the factors of forming government.
Notably, Russia used to manipulate this issue before the decision
on membership to the Customs Union. Now after the decision the West
is behaving similarly. This international confrontation is not ruled
out to lead to an escalation and clash.
In a new war Armenia will have to address several issues. Firstly,
it is Azerbaijan and recently frequent military clashes with
it. Secondly and most importantly, Armenia will have to address the
Russian military base in Armenia. Armenians started winning as soon
as the Russian military base was withdrawn from Stepanakert. In the
beginning, it helped the Azerbaijani army and restricted the actions
of Armenians. In addition, Armenia will not only need to neutralize
the factor of the base but also take the whole arsenal. If not,
defeat will be inevitable.
Is such a scenario possible? Absolutely yes considering that at some
moment Russia is going to need a mini war to address its own problems
in the region which have been pending even after Armenia announced
to join the Customs Union. As to domestic affairs, Serzh Sargsyan
will use this circumstance and try to resolve the problem of his
government. The war threat enables him to do it again.
Haik Aramyan 17:31 08/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31057
From: Baghdasarian
Serzh Sargsyan held a meeting of the National Security Council
yesterday and, according to the official message, "Discussed were
issues related to the provisional military and political situation
around Armenia and activities of the highest state echelon during
the adoption of military and political decisions."
Earlier this spring Serzh Sargsyan announced that public administration
must be built around the armed forces, the army must be the core. Prior
to the presidential election Armenia adopted a law enabling the use
of the army in domestic affairs in case the efforts of other law
enforcement agencies are not sufficient. In this context, the meeting
of the National Security Council seems to be the first step towards
the application of this law. What is this, and what are the internal
and external components of this situation?
Opinions were expressed then that Serzh Sargsyan is trying to use
the army to strengthen his foothold in domestic affairs, actually
legalizing the use of the army in internal affairs. This circumstance
may have had a role in Armenia's domestic processes in both the
electoral stage and post-electoral developments when the so-called
key political forces rejected participation in the election.
In the post-electoral stage the key issue on the political agenda was
the foreign political bias of Armenia, in which context it was stated
that if association with the EU is chosen, Russia will provoke a coup
in Armenia. It was also said to be a military coup.
Serzh Sargsyan chose the Customs Union that, however, does not seem to
have addressed any issue, whether domestic or foreign. The prospects
of the Customs Union and Armenian-Russian relations remain vague,
so do the domestic affairs. In this situation Serzh Sargsyan is seen
taking a time out to move on to his plans. In particular, he is going
to change the role and functions of the law enforcement bodies. He
has already established a united body of investigations and appointed
an insider as prosecutor general. He is thus bringing into being the
concept on building the state around the army.
What war is Serzh Sargsyan preparing for, domestic or foreign?
Apparently, both because the path of developments in our region rules
out a "local" one. The Karabakh issue was particularly manipulated
by some Russia and Armenia-based circles within the framework of
European integration. In both its active and passive stages it has
been and remains one of the factors of forming government.
Notably, Russia used to manipulate this issue before the decision
on membership to the Customs Union. Now after the decision the West
is behaving similarly. This international confrontation is not ruled
out to lead to an escalation and clash.
In a new war Armenia will have to address several issues. Firstly,
it is Azerbaijan and recently frequent military clashes with
it. Secondly and most importantly, Armenia will have to address the
Russian military base in Armenia. Armenians started winning as soon
as the Russian military base was withdrawn from Stepanakert. In the
beginning, it helped the Azerbaijani army and restricted the actions
of Armenians. In addition, Armenia will not only need to neutralize
the factor of the base but also take the whole arsenal. If not,
defeat will be inevitable.
Is such a scenario possible? Absolutely yes considering that at some
moment Russia is going to need a mini war to address its own problems
in the region which have been pending even after Armenia announced
to join the Customs Union. As to domestic affairs, Serzh Sargsyan
will use this circumstance and try to resolve the problem of his
government. The war threat enables him to do it again.
Haik Aramyan 17:31 08/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31057
From: Baghdasarian