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AZERI ANALYST SAYS WASHINGTON HEARINGS MESSAGE TO BAKU
Yeni Musavat, Azerbaijan
Oct 7 2013
Azerbaijani analyst Elxan Sahinoglu has said that the 9 October
hearings in the US Senate will serve as a message to Baku to make a
choice between the West and Russia.
In an interview with the opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat on 7
October, the analyst who leads the Atlas research centre, said that
Baku is expected to choose between integration with Russia and the West
after the presidential election on 9 October. According to Sahinoglu,
Azerbaijan is so far the only post-Soviet country that has yet to
make a choice between deeper integration with the West through the
European Union's Eastern Partnership programme and that with Russia
through Moscow-backed Customs Union.
The analyst said that neither Moscow, nor Washington with Brussels
will accept Baku's neutral position. "Both poles wish to see Azerbaijan
side with them. Azerbaijan is in all aspects the region's key state,"
Sahinoglu said.
The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee in its hearings on "A
Pivotal Moment for the Eastern Partnership: Outlook for Ukraine,
Moldova, Georgia, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan" is likely to focus
on Azerbaijan and Armenia, the analyst said. "In speeches concerning
Armenia, the Kremlin's pressure on Yerevan will be emphasized and this
policy of Moscow will be criticized... The easy financial allocations
of the USA and EU for Armenia will be left behind. If Armenia chose
Russia, it must turn to Russia for help."
He described Baku's decision to join the Non-Alignment Movement
as a "wrong move" that only increased the pressure on Azerbaijan
and predicted a more intense struggle for Baku after the 9 October
presidential election. "Both poles regarded Azerbaijan's membership
in the Non-Alignment Movement as Baku's hesitation to make a choice.
Therefore, pressure on Azerbaijan further increased."
According to Sahinoglu, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan will opt for
the European Union. "Simply, if this choice was sped up, increased
pressure from Russia could be neutralized earlier. As long as it
stays neutral, Moscow's pressure on Azerbaijan will increase. If
Azerbaijan's main allies, partners within GUAM - Georgia, Ukraine
and Moldova - will stand by the EU, then we should be there too."
Not signing the Customs Union with Russia will hurt Azerbaijan's
exports to Russia, the analyst said. "It is obvious that some problems
may emerge in import and export operations with Russia if Azerbaijan
does not become a member of the Customs Union. If this is so, then the
best place for our goods is the 500m-strong European market. For this
we must first sign the associative membership agreement with the EU.
This is also in line with Azerbaijan's national and security
interests."
[Translated from Azeri]
From: A. Papazian
Yeni Musavat, Azerbaijan
Oct 7 2013
Azerbaijani analyst Elxan Sahinoglu has said that the 9 October
hearings in the US Senate will serve as a message to Baku to make a
choice between the West and Russia.
In an interview with the opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat on 7
October, the analyst who leads the Atlas research centre, said that
Baku is expected to choose between integration with Russia and the West
after the presidential election on 9 October. According to Sahinoglu,
Azerbaijan is so far the only post-Soviet country that has yet to
make a choice between deeper integration with the West through the
European Union's Eastern Partnership programme and that with Russia
through Moscow-backed Customs Union.
The analyst said that neither Moscow, nor Washington with Brussels
will accept Baku's neutral position. "Both poles wish to see Azerbaijan
side with them. Azerbaijan is in all aspects the region's key state,"
Sahinoglu said.
The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee in its hearings on "A
Pivotal Moment for the Eastern Partnership: Outlook for Ukraine,
Moldova, Georgia, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan" is likely to focus
on Azerbaijan and Armenia, the analyst said. "In speeches concerning
Armenia, the Kremlin's pressure on Yerevan will be emphasized and this
policy of Moscow will be criticized... The easy financial allocations
of the USA and EU for Armenia will be left behind. If Armenia chose
Russia, it must turn to Russia for help."
He described Baku's decision to join the Non-Alignment Movement
as a "wrong move" that only increased the pressure on Azerbaijan
and predicted a more intense struggle for Baku after the 9 October
presidential election. "Both poles regarded Azerbaijan's membership
in the Non-Alignment Movement as Baku's hesitation to make a choice.
Therefore, pressure on Azerbaijan further increased."
According to Sahinoglu, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan will opt for
the European Union. "Simply, if this choice was sped up, increased
pressure from Russia could be neutralized earlier. As long as it
stays neutral, Moscow's pressure on Azerbaijan will increase. If
Azerbaijan's main allies, partners within GUAM - Georgia, Ukraine
and Moldova - will stand by the EU, then we should be there too."
Not signing the Customs Union with Russia will hurt Azerbaijan's
exports to Russia, the analyst said. "It is obvious that some problems
may emerge in import and export operations with Russia if Azerbaijan
does not become a member of the Customs Union. If this is so, then the
best place for our goods is the 500m-strong European market. For this
we must first sign the associative membership agreement with the EU.
This is also in line with Azerbaijan's national and security
interests."
[Translated from Azeri]
From: A. Papazian