Tweet
ARTSAKH IS AN EXCUSE FOR ARMENIAN CRIMINAL OLIGARCHY
There is an opinion that the West ran into the unresolved Artsakh
issue as Armenia refused to sign the Association Agreement. This
opinion is based on threats that came from Russia which used its
influence on Armenia's security.
Is the Artsakh issue the problem? This issue is often presented
as the problem of Armenia, a matter of progress of foreign policy,
democratization. It is hard to find another society whose social and
political leaders would successfully transform the society's victory
to a matter of progress.
Did Artsakh have a big "role" in Russia's threats? The government is
stating this indirectly, announcing that the Customs Union was chosen
out of concerns about the security of Armenia.
The government needs to refer to security, hinting at Artsakh.
This is exaggerated indeed. A military clash over Artsakh has acquired
strategic importance to Russia. Russia will thereby try to ensure its
military presence in Artsakh to the Iranian border, which is the only
more or less reliable safeguard for Russia's foothold in the Caucasus.
Fortunately, however, Russia has limited possibilities now. Besides
the Minsk Group co-chairs France and the United States, and the EU
that is seeking for mechanisms enabling its long-term presence in the
region, Azerbaijan also has a big role. Azerbaijan is well-aware that
Russia, not Armenia or itself stands a real chance to win. Turkey
also understands this.
In the case of Artsakh the Russian threat is obviously exaggerated.
Russia did not need to threaten with defeat of Armenia in Artsakh.
Russia had other more substantial leverages. The first is the economic
one. And gas is not primary at all. The issues of Armenian migrants
and Russia-based Armenian businessmen are primary.
They are now sustaining the Armenian economy because Western
investments require the economic environment to comply with more
modern rules and conditions. Most Russia-based rich Armenians are
coalesced with the Armenian government, and millions of investments
are made in return for political quotas. Without these investments and
charity Armenia would be in ruins. To this adds remittances without
which Armenia will inevitably face default.
It is possible to avoid this with the help of domestic economic and
political reforms, market liberation, law enforcement and public
administration based on social and national interests. This would
boost diversification which would act as a new guarantee of economic
security resulting in military and political security.
However, since the ruling elite in Armenia did not display genuine
will and ability to carry out reforms, Russian economic pressure
worked immediately. It produced the desired effect for Moscow. So,
Moscow need not reach for Stepanakert though reaching for Stepanakert
remains the ultimate goal of its Caucasian policy which it is now
trying to implement through humanitarian mechanisms.
So, there is no need to present Artsakh as an obstacle for the Armenian
society. Artsakh is not an obstacle but a military, political and
geographical factor which, however, Armenia is not using effectively.
The government prefers referring to Artsakh every now and then
because as soon as they confess economic pressure, the issue of their
incompetency and accountability will rise. So what is the point in
making commitments if the "eternal" issue of Artsakh is a handy tool
to whitewash its lack of will?
Meanwhile, the West did not run into the unsettled issue of Artsakh.
The West ran into the totalitarian regime of criminal oligarchy.
Hakob Badalyan 13:16 12/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31086
From: Baghdasarian
There is an opinion that the West ran into the unresolved Artsakh
issue as Armenia refused to sign the Association Agreement. This
opinion is based on threats that came from Russia which used its
influence on Armenia's security.
Is the Artsakh issue the problem? This issue is often presented
as the problem of Armenia, a matter of progress of foreign policy,
democratization. It is hard to find another society whose social and
political leaders would successfully transform the society's victory
to a matter of progress.
Did Artsakh have a big "role" in Russia's threats? The government is
stating this indirectly, announcing that the Customs Union was chosen
out of concerns about the security of Armenia.
The government needs to refer to security, hinting at Artsakh.
This is exaggerated indeed. A military clash over Artsakh has acquired
strategic importance to Russia. Russia will thereby try to ensure its
military presence in Artsakh to the Iranian border, which is the only
more or less reliable safeguard for Russia's foothold in the Caucasus.
Fortunately, however, Russia has limited possibilities now. Besides
the Minsk Group co-chairs France and the United States, and the EU
that is seeking for mechanisms enabling its long-term presence in the
region, Azerbaijan also has a big role. Azerbaijan is well-aware that
Russia, not Armenia or itself stands a real chance to win. Turkey
also understands this.
In the case of Artsakh the Russian threat is obviously exaggerated.
Russia did not need to threaten with defeat of Armenia in Artsakh.
Russia had other more substantial leverages. The first is the economic
one. And gas is not primary at all. The issues of Armenian migrants
and Russia-based Armenian businessmen are primary.
They are now sustaining the Armenian economy because Western
investments require the economic environment to comply with more
modern rules and conditions. Most Russia-based rich Armenians are
coalesced with the Armenian government, and millions of investments
are made in return for political quotas. Without these investments and
charity Armenia would be in ruins. To this adds remittances without
which Armenia will inevitably face default.
It is possible to avoid this with the help of domestic economic and
political reforms, market liberation, law enforcement and public
administration based on social and national interests. This would
boost diversification which would act as a new guarantee of economic
security resulting in military and political security.
However, since the ruling elite in Armenia did not display genuine
will and ability to carry out reforms, Russian economic pressure
worked immediately. It produced the desired effect for Moscow. So,
Moscow need not reach for Stepanakert though reaching for Stepanakert
remains the ultimate goal of its Caucasian policy which it is now
trying to implement through humanitarian mechanisms.
So, there is no need to present Artsakh as an obstacle for the Armenian
society. Artsakh is not an obstacle but a military, political and
geographical factor which, however, Armenia is not using effectively.
The government prefers referring to Artsakh every now and then
because as soon as they confess economic pressure, the issue of their
incompetency and accountability will rise. So what is the point in
making commitments if the "eternal" issue of Artsakh is a handy tool
to whitewash its lack of will?
Meanwhile, the West did not run into the unsettled issue of Artsakh.
The West ran into the totalitarian regime of criminal oligarchy.
Hakob Badalyan 13:16 12/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31086
From: Baghdasarian