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Azerbaijani scholar: NATO should extend Article 5 to Eastern
Partnership countries
Topics: a lecturer from the Baku State University, Armenia, Article 5,
Azerbaijan, Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli, Customs Union, EU Eastern
Partnership Programme, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, NATO, Ruslanas
Iržikevičius, Russia
Interview with Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli at the Riga Conference 2013 |
Photo courtesy of Riga Conference 2013
The chief editor of The Lithuania Tribune Ruslanas Iržikevičius spoke
with Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli, a lecturer from the Baku State University,
Department of Diplomacy and Contemporary Integration Processes at the
Riga Conference 2013.
The conversation concerned Azerbaijan's view on the hidden Russia's
pressure in relation to the Eastern Partnership Programme, as well as
NATO's plans to amend the treaty by extending the Article 5 to the
Eastern Partnership countries, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict being
very useful for Russia. According the academic, there is no end to
that conflict for another 5-10 years.
The Lithuania Tribune (TLT): President Grybauskaitė has argued that
Russia's pressure on the EU's Eastern Partnership showed the lack of
state's confidence. Does Azerbaijan feel Russia's pressure in relation
to the Eastern Partnership?
Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli (BA): I would agree with Her Excellency. There is
pressure coming from Russia. Although it is invisible - you cannot
really feel that pressure coming from the state officials -
undoubtedly it is there considering certain behaviour and reactions to
certain things.
Especially if we look at the Eastern Partnership context, which is
regarded as provocative in Russia, that pressure element is there and
it includes reactions to different political factors in the Eastern
Partnership countries, such as Azerbaijan's co-operation with the
European Union.
The main issue for Azerbaijan in relation to the EU and the Eastern
Partnership is to get the security guarantee. The EU-oriented foreign
policy of Azerbaijan affects certain status quos, which, consequently,
has an impact on the state's relations with Russia. We try to balance
that by maintaining good relationship with Russia and strengthening
the relationship with the EU.
TLT: What does Azerbaijan expect from the Eastern Partnership Summit
that will take place in Vilnius?
BA: I would not say that there any specific expectations from that
particular summit. There are only general expectations and we expect
to materialise them.
TLT: The success of the Eastern Partnership partly depends on the EU.
>From your point of view, what should the EU do to facilitate the
increasing co-operation between the EU and its Eastern neighbours?
What can go wrong?
Bakhtiyar Aslanbayil at the Riga Conference 2013 | Photo courtesy of
the Riga Conference 2013
BA: Talking about Azerbaijan and Georgia, there is a general
understanding that the relationships with the EU and NATO are two-way
streets. If people could see that those relationships bring certain
results, that could fulfil some of our expectations, in terms of more
support to the Eastern Partnership countries and the activities that
weaken Russia's influence in the region. That might be too much to
expect, but I would not say there is any kind of failure in the EU or
NATO's actions.
I think that both the EU and NATO have to rethink their relationships
with the Eastern Partnership countries. For instance, NATO's Article 5
does not apply to us, as we are only partners of the Alliance, and the
alliance's Article 4, which refers to partner-states, does not suit us
any longer under current circumstances; for example, continuous
threatening from Russia and occasional threats from Iran (for
instance, any Western attack against Iran could lead to their response
directed against the Western interests and energy-related matters that
are based in Azerbaijan).
If we look at the Armenian example, they also conduct military
exercises, the purpose of which is to learn to attack a pipeline.
Having in mind certain geopolitical conditions, any threat coming from
Armenia becomes an indirect threat from Russia, so there are many
serious threats against energy infrastructure.
The question is whether Azerbaijan is ready to protect its energy
infrastructure. The state is ready, but not to the largest possible
degree. Therefore, we see the need for new agendas due to the already
mentioned conditions regarding the NATO's Articles 4 and 5. I would
suggest some sort of new specific operational or partnership
agreement. That is important as the protection of our energy
infrastructure is a mutual interest of Azerbaijan and many of the EU
and NATO member-states, because the infrastructure benefits the people
living in those countries.
TLT: Recently, Armenia has declared that it would like to relate its
future to the Eurasian Union. How that may affect the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?
BA: I cannot call that as something unexpected. Armenia is close to
the Customs Union, it is also close to Russia, which was always
supportive towards Armenian politics. So, I do not think there are any
significant changes. What has changed is that now Armenia and Russia
will strengthen their relationship in order to achieve the Customs
Union.
These two states do not share any border; therefore, it was suggested
to build a railway which would connect Russia and Armenia. If such
project was successful, the most important would be Georgia's reaction
to that. That might change the relations between Georgia and Armenia.
Regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, I would like to speak as an
academic, not a diplomat. The conflict was triggered and developed,
promoted and maintained by Russia. Russia is not interested in any
form of resolution of the conflict. Even if we supported the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia would probably not be
interested in that despite its support to Armenia.
So the conflict will continue as long as Russia continues to influence
the geopolitics of the region. Maybe then Azerbaijan and Armenia will
be able to agree on the potential solution of the conflict.
TLT: Can it be argued that the conflict will continue for at least
next 50-100 years?
BA: I would not be so pessimistic. I honestly do not see its
conclusion in the next 5-10 years. The issue is that we do not know
how Russia's influence will be weakened. New energy sources, such as
shale gas and more environmental-friendly use of coal, could impact
Russia's economy and, consequently, its influence.
The conclusion would be similar to what happened with the Soviet Union
- it collapsed after its economy collapsed. Another possible scenario
can be based on the changing political system in Russia. Democratic
powers are becoming more and more influential domestically, that could
eventually lead to a less aggressive foreign policy.
TLT: What do you think about Lithuania's role in solving the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
BA: I think that the Baltic States, including Lithuania, are doing
their best. They are very supportive towards the conflict resolution
within the EU and the Council of Europe. The support that your foreign
policy is expressing is visible. Regarding the current geopolitical
situation, I do not think you could do more.
http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/53460/azerbaijani-scholar-nato-should-extend-article-5-to-eastern-partnership-countries-201353460/
Partnership countries
Topics: a lecturer from the Baku State University, Armenia, Article 5,
Azerbaijan, Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli, Customs Union, EU Eastern
Partnership Programme, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, NATO, Ruslanas
Iržikevičius, Russia
Interview with Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli at the Riga Conference 2013 |
Photo courtesy of Riga Conference 2013
The chief editor of The Lithuania Tribune Ruslanas Iržikevičius spoke
with Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli, a lecturer from the Baku State University,
Department of Diplomacy and Contemporary Integration Processes at the
Riga Conference 2013.
The conversation concerned Azerbaijan's view on the hidden Russia's
pressure in relation to the Eastern Partnership Programme, as well as
NATO's plans to amend the treaty by extending the Article 5 to the
Eastern Partnership countries, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict being
very useful for Russia. According the academic, there is no end to
that conflict for another 5-10 years.
The Lithuania Tribune (TLT): President Grybauskaitė has argued that
Russia's pressure on the EU's Eastern Partnership showed the lack of
state's confidence. Does Azerbaijan feel Russia's pressure in relation
to the Eastern Partnership?
Bakhtiyar Aslanbayli (BA): I would agree with Her Excellency. There is
pressure coming from Russia. Although it is invisible - you cannot
really feel that pressure coming from the state officials -
undoubtedly it is there considering certain behaviour and reactions to
certain things.
Especially if we look at the Eastern Partnership context, which is
regarded as provocative in Russia, that pressure element is there and
it includes reactions to different political factors in the Eastern
Partnership countries, such as Azerbaijan's co-operation with the
European Union.
The main issue for Azerbaijan in relation to the EU and the Eastern
Partnership is to get the security guarantee. The EU-oriented foreign
policy of Azerbaijan affects certain status quos, which, consequently,
has an impact on the state's relations with Russia. We try to balance
that by maintaining good relationship with Russia and strengthening
the relationship with the EU.
TLT: What does Azerbaijan expect from the Eastern Partnership Summit
that will take place in Vilnius?
BA: I would not say that there any specific expectations from that
particular summit. There are only general expectations and we expect
to materialise them.
TLT: The success of the Eastern Partnership partly depends on the EU.
>From your point of view, what should the EU do to facilitate the
increasing co-operation between the EU and its Eastern neighbours?
What can go wrong?
Bakhtiyar Aslanbayil at the Riga Conference 2013 | Photo courtesy of
the Riga Conference 2013
BA: Talking about Azerbaijan and Georgia, there is a general
understanding that the relationships with the EU and NATO are two-way
streets. If people could see that those relationships bring certain
results, that could fulfil some of our expectations, in terms of more
support to the Eastern Partnership countries and the activities that
weaken Russia's influence in the region. That might be too much to
expect, but I would not say there is any kind of failure in the EU or
NATO's actions.
I think that both the EU and NATO have to rethink their relationships
with the Eastern Partnership countries. For instance, NATO's Article 5
does not apply to us, as we are only partners of the Alliance, and the
alliance's Article 4, which refers to partner-states, does not suit us
any longer under current circumstances; for example, continuous
threatening from Russia and occasional threats from Iran (for
instance, any Western attack against Iran could lead to their response
directed against the Western interests and energy-related matters that
are based in Azerbaijan).
If we look at the Armenian example, they also conduct military
exercises, the purpose of which is to learn to attack a pipeline.
Having in mind certain geopolitical conditions, any threat coming from
Armenia becomes an indirect threat from Russia, so there are many
serious threats against energy infrastructure.
The question is whether Azerbaijan is ready to protect its energy
infrastructure. The state is ready, but not to the largest possible
degree. Therefore, we see the need for new agendas due to the already
mentioned conditions regarding the NATO's Articles 4 and 5. I would
suggest some sort of new specific operational or partnership
agreement. That is important as the protection of our energy
infrastructure is a mutual interest of Azerbaijan and many of the EU
and NATO member-states, because the infrastructure benefits the people
living in those countries.
TLT: Recently, Armenia has declared that it would like to relate its
future to the Eurasian Union. How that may affect the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?
BA: I cannot call that as something unexpected. Armenia is close to
the Customs Union, it is also close to Russia, which was always
supportive towards Armenian politics. So, I do not think there are any
significant changes. What has changed is that now Armenia and Russia
will strengthen their relationship in order to achieve the Customs
Union.
These two states do not share any border; therefore, it was suggested
to build a railway which would connect Russia and Armenia. If such
project was successful, the most important would be Georgia's reaction
to that. That might change the relations between Georgia and Armenia.
Regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, I would like to speak as an
academic, not a diplomat. The conflict was triggered and developed,
promoted and maintained by Russia. Russia is not interested in any
form of resolution of the conflict. Even if we supported the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia would probably not be
interested in that despite its support to Armenia.
So the conflict will continue as long as Russia continues to influence
the geopolitics of the region. Maybe then Azerbaijan and Armenia will
be able to agree on the potential solution of the conflict.
TLT: Can it be argued that the conflict will continue for at least
next 50-100 years?
BA: I would not be so pessimistic. I honestly do not see its
conclusion in the next 5-10 years. The issue is that we do not know
how Russia's influence will be weakened. New energy sources, such as
shale gas and more environmental-friendly use of coal, could impact
Russia's economy and, consequently, its influence.
The conclusion would be similar to what happened with the Soviet Union
- it collapsed after its economy collapsed. Another possible scenario
can be based on the changing political system in Russia. Democratic
powers are becoming more and more influential domestically, that could
eventually lead to a less aggressive foreign policy.
TLT: What do you think about Lithuania's role in solving the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
BA: I think that the Baltic States, including Lithuania, are doing
their best. They are very supportive towards the conflict resolution
within the EU and the Council of Europe. The support that your foreign
policy is expressing is visible. Regarding the current geopolitical
situation, I do not think you could do more.
http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/53460/azerbaijani-scholar-nato-should-extend-article-5-to-eastern-partnership-countries-201353460/