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IVLIAN KHAINDRAVA: EURASIAN UNION BASED ON COMPULSION CAN HAVE NO PROSPECTS
ArmInfo's Interview with Ivlian Khaindrava, expert at the Tbilisi-based
International Republican Institute
by David Stepanyan Tuesday, October 15, 22:59
Would you share your forecasts about the presidential election results
in Georgia?
The intrigues of the upcoming presidential election in Georgia
are two. Will Giorgi Margvelashvili, representative of the ruling
coalition, win the election, or a second round will be announced? Who
will take the second place, David Bakradze or Nino Burjanadze?
Overshadowed by Bidzina Ivanishvili, Margvelashvili will have to try
his best to somehow mobilize the voters who support Ivanishvili.
Consequently, he may fail to get 50% of votes in the first round.
Nevertheless, he cannot but win the election in the second round,
because Bakradze's voters will never vote for Burjanadze and vice
versa. As regards the second place, if Bakradze takes the second place,
the balance of forces after the parliamentary elections of 2012 will
be generally confirmed. If Burjanadze takes the second place, she may
demand snap parliamentary elections. It will be a "flawed" demand,
as she refused to run for parliament in 2012 denying the possibility
to change anything through elections. She was mistaken, actually.
Nevertheless, Burjanadze will claim adequate representation in
the parliament for her party if she takes the second place in the
presidential race.
Actually, Georgia is a non-competitive transit country for Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Turkey. Do you think Georgia derives maximum benefit
from it?
I do not think that it is right to seek maximum gain from the
relations with the closest neighbor. Quite the contrary, the countries
should sacrifice part of their benefits today for more important and
long-term goals. In Europe they have already realized that and stopped
scrupulously calculating their own profits. As a result, the Schengen
Area and eurozone were created. The Georgian leadership observes this
approach and enjoys a similar attitude from the leaderships of Armenia,
Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In what fields could Tbilisi and Yerevan promote their relations and
cooperation today?
Not so long ago, at a meeting of Georgian and Armenian experts,
I called Georgia and Armenia a EU-friendly zone. After all, Armenia
followed Georgia's example and lifted visa requirements for the EU
citizens. In addition, it has become much easier and comfortable now
for the people to pass the border crossings and customs points between
our countries. The perspectives would be wider if the two countries
continued simultaneously moving towards the EU. Unfortunately, the
situation has changed after 3 September, as Armenia was distracted to
another path. But this does not mean that the promotion of cooperation
will automatically stop. In this light, I'd like to outline the
upcoming Georgian-Armenian Conference on Transboundary Cooperation
to be held in Stepanavan with the support of the EU. Promoting human
contacts, providing and learning reliable information about each other
is of utmost importance for our publics. We must not allow minions
and parapolitical speculators to stir up international conflicts
from domestic problems that have always been and will always be in
the lives of the two neighbor-states.
After Armenia had taken a decision to join the Customs Union,
Russian experts started speaking of possible recognition of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. They
also say that Azerbaijan can prevent this by Eurasian integration
only. How promising is this policy of "soft pressure" on Baku?
Russia manipulates pressure upon Yerevan as well as Baku, Tbilisi,
Kiev and Chisinau. I cannot call it "soft force" when, for instance,
they mean billion dollars weapon delivery, or blackmail in the context
of energy supply. Russia will do what is beneficial to itself and at
the time it wants. This is the rare occurrence when I agree to the
viewpoint of the incumbent President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili,
which he expressed very much emotionally when making a speech at the
UN General Assembly. As regards other countries, even Belarus, the
most independent country from Russia, as well as other countries of
the CIS, CSTO and SCO did not recognize the independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia.
What are the prospects of the Russian policy of creation of a Eurasian
Union in the post-Soviet area through economic and political pressure
on the post-Soviet countries given that no other methods are observed,
unfortunately?
Fortunately, no other ways or temptations are observed, I would say.
Therefore, the Eurasian Union based on compulsion cannot have any
prospects today. We used to live under compulsion for a long period
of time. However, we have not lost the hankering to freedom and
sovereignty.
Global politics is experiencing sharp fluctuations directly affecting
the South Caucasus and the neighboring regions. The Syrian situation is
one of the examples. What can these fluctuations do to small countries
such as Georgia and Armenia?
Any upheavals more or less revoice even in the most far away points
of our global world, especially that diastrophic movement happens
in the neighboring country. Various risks increase in such cases
especially for such small countries like Georgia and Armenia located
at the lines of the civilized crackings. I think that we would feel
ourselves more secure if the South Caucasus were an integrated region
in the single system of collective security, but not a tinderbox,
which every busybody in town may blow up. First of all, we should
blame ourselves for that. However, not such countries determine
development of events in the world policy, and those which determine
development of events have often started doing that in an off hand
way. What do we have to do? We should keep head down and should not
put unattainable goals, but be steady in our purposes, which are in
line with fundamental interests of our peoples.
What changes do you think the country's foreign policy needs?
The foreign policy of Georgia needs no changes. It needs to be
conducted more effectively and it definitely needs to be better
understood by certain politicians of the West. For instance, a group
of representatives of the European People's Party have been under
Mikheil Saakashvili's admiration for a long period of time and do not
want to see where our country has moved to during the second term
of his presidency. Such politicians had better think about how and
why Armenia has been drawn away from under their nose at this stage,
as the interest in Europeanisation of the South Caucasus is not of
the unilateral nature.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=F184C3D0-35CB-11E3-B0670EB7C0D21663
ArmInfo's Interview with Ivlian Khaindrava, expert at the Tbilisi-based
International Republican Institute
by David Stepanyan Tuesday, October 15, 22:59
Would you share your forecasts about the presidential election results
in Georgia?
The intrigues of the upcoming presidential election in Georgia
are two. Will Giorgi Margvelashvili, representative of the ruling
coalition, win the election, or a second round will be announced? Who
will take the second place, David Bakradze or Nino Burjanadze?
Overshadowed by Bidzina Ivanishvili, Margvelashvili will have to try
his best to somehow mobilize the voters who support Ivanishvili.
Consequently, he may fail to get 50% of votes in the first round.
Nevertheless, he cannot but win the election in the second round,
because Bakradze's voters will never vote for Burjanadze and vice
versa. As regards the second place, if Bakradze takes the second place,
the balance of forces after the parliamentary elections of 2012 will
be generally confirmed. If Burjanadze takes the second place, she may
demand snap parliamentary elections. It will be a "flawed" demand,
as she refused to run for parliament in 2012 denying the possibility
to change anything through elections. She was mistaken, actually.
Nevertheless, Burjanadze will claim adequate representation in
the parliament for her party if she takes the second place in the
presidential race.
Actually, Georgia is a non-competitive transit country for Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Turkey. Do you think Georgia derives maximum benefit
from it?
I do not think that it is right to seek maximum gain from the
relations with the closest neighbor. Quite the contrary, the countries
should sacrifice part of their benefits today for more important and
long-term goals. In Europe they have already realized that and stopped
scrupulously calculating their own profits. As a result, the Schengen
Area and eurozone were created. The Georgian leadership observes this
approach and enjoys a similar attitude from the leaderships of Armenia,
Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In what fields could Tbilisi and Yerevan promote their relations and
cooperation today?
Not so long ago, at a meeting of Georgian and Armenian experts,
I called Georgia and Armenia a EU-friendly zone. After all, Armenia
followed Georgia's example and lifted visa requirements for the EU
citizens. In addition, it has become much easier and comfortable now
for the people to pass the border crossings and customs points between
our countries. The perspectives would be wider if the two countries
continued simultaneously moving towards the EU. Unfortunately, the
situation has changed after 3 September, as Armenia was distracted to
another path. But this does not mean that the promotion of cooperation
will automatically stop. In this light, I'd like to outline the
upcoming Georgian-Armenian Conference on Transboundary Cooperation
to be held in Stepanavan with the support of the EU. Promoting human
contacts, providing and learning reliable information about each other
is of utmost importance for our publics. We must not allow minions
and parapolitical speculators to stir up international conflicts
from domestic problems that have always been and will always be in
the lives of the two neighbor-states.
After Armenia had taken a decision to join the Customs Union,
Russian experts started speaking of possible recognition of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. They
also say that Azerbaijan can prevent this by Eurasian integration
only. How promising is this policy of "soft pressure" on Baku?
Russia manipulates pressure upon Yerevan as well as Baku, Tbilisi,
Kiev and Chisinau. I cannot call it "soft force" when, for instance,
they mean billion dollars weapon delivery, or blackmail in the context
of energy supply. Russia will do what is beneficial to itself and at
the time it wants. This is the rare occurrence when I agree to the
viewpoint of the incumbent President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili,
which he expressed very much emotionally when making a speech at the
UN General Assembly. As regards other countries, even Belarus, the
most independent country from Russia, as well as other countries of
the CIS, CSTO and SCO did not recognize the independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia.
What are the prospects of the Russian policy of creation of a Eurasian
Union in the post-Soviet area through economic and political pressure
on the post-Soviet countries given that no other methods are observed,
unfortunately?
Fortunately, no other ways or temptations are observed, I would say.
Therefore, the Eurasian Union based on compulsion cannot have any
prospects today. We used to live under compulsion for a long period
of time. However, we have not lost the hankering to freedom and
sovereignty.
Global politics is experiencing sharp fluctuations directly affecting
the South Caucasus and the neighboring regions. The Syrian situation is
one of the examples. What can these fluctuations do to small countries
such as Georgia and Armenia?
Any upheavals more or less revoice even in the most far away points
of our global world, especially that diastrophic movement happens
in the neighboring country. Various risks increase in such cases
especially for such small countries like Georgia and Armenia located
at the lines of the civilized crackings. I think that we would feel
ourselves more secure if the South Caucasus were an integrated region
in the single system of collective security, but not a tinderbox,
which every busybody in town may blow up. First of all, we should
blame ourselves for that. However, not such countries determine
development of events in the world policy, and those which determine
development of events have often started doing that in an off hand
way. What do we have to do? We should keep head down and should not
put unattainable goals, but be steady in our purposes, which are in
line with fundamental interests of our peoples.
What changes do you think the country's foreign policy needs?
The foreign policy of Georgia needs no changes. It needs to be
conducted more effectively and it definitely needs to be better
understood by certain politicians of the West. For instance, a group
of representatives of the European People's Party have been under
Mikheil Saakashvili's admiration for a long period of time and do not
want to see where our country has moved to during the second term
of his presidency. Such politicians had better think about how and
why Armenia has been drawn away from under their nose at this stage,
as the interest in Europeanisation of the South Caucasus is not of
the unilateral nature.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=F184C3D0-35CB-11E3-B0670EB7C0D21663