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READING THE RUNES IN BAKU
Posted by: Thomas de Waal Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Print Page
Ilham Aliyev has won reelection as president of Azerbaijan for a
third term. The result was never in doubt. Nor was the fact that
election observers would criticize the conduct of the poll-the OSCE
monitoring team promptly released a statement describing a number of
serious defects.
Now it gets more interesting. As Aliyev begins his eleventh year as
president of Azerbaijan, the huge shadow of his father and predecessor
inevitably begins to recede and this is the moment for him to set
a new political agenda for the country-if he wants too. As I have
argued recently, a changing geopolitical environment means that he
needs to do so or risk facing a whole new set of problems.
Reading the runes in post-election Baku, there is already one important
piece of news to ponder. This is that under a presidential pardon
former Economic Development Minister Farhad Aliyev has been released
from jail, along with his brother Rafik.
Farhad Aliyev was jailed in 2005. Formally the charge was corruption
but his imprisonment was obviously the result of a political falling
out. Aliyev had picked the wrong side in an internal power struggle
and got punished for it.
Farhad Aliyev (not a relative of the president) had the reputation of
being a modernizer, in favor of reforming the economy. Significantly,
his only statement on being granted his freedom was to declare loyalty
to the president.
It may be that the release of the former minister is the beginning of
a thaw and that a reelected and relaxed president wants to initiate
political and economic reforms in this third term (all within limits,
of course). If that is the case, other actions must follow, including
the release of other jailed political figures, such as Ilgar Mammadov.
Or maybe not. The other story out of Baku is of the government
pushing back hard against the U.S. government's sharp statement on
the election. Veteran Soviet-era survivor and Presidential Chief of
Staff Ramiz Mekhtiev claimed that the Americans had "advised" them to
give the opposition 25 percent of the vote in the poll. He again spun
the story that the United States is captive to the Armenian lobby and
"double standards" when it comes to Azerbaijan.
Both these are episodes without a trend. It will take a few weeks
before a clearer narrative emerges from Baku.
http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=53312
From: Baghdasarian
Posted by: Thomas de Waal Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Print Page
Ilham Aliyev has won reelection as president of Azerbaijan for a
third term. The result was never in doubt. Nor was the fact that
election observers would criticize the conduct of the poll-the OSCE
monitoring team promptly released a statement describing a number of
serious defects.
Now it gets more interesting. As Aliyev begins his eleventh year as
president of Azerbaijan, the huge shadow of his father and predecessor
inevitably begins to recede and this is the moment for him to set
a new political agenda for the country-if he wants too. As I have
argued recently, a changing geopolitical environment means that he
needs to do so or risk facing a whole new set of problems.
Reading the runes in post-election Baku, there is already one important
piece of news to ponder. This is that under a presidential pardon
former Economic Development Minister Farhad Aliyev has been released
from jail, along with his brother Rafik.
Farhad Aliyev was jailed in 2005. Formally the charge was corruption
but his imprisonment was obviously the result of a political falling
out. Aliyev had picked the wrong side in an internal power struggle
and got punished for it.
Farhad Aliyev (not a relative of the president) had the reputation of
being a modernizer, in favor of reforming the economy. Significantly,
his only statement on being granted his freedom was to declare loyalty
to the president.
It may be that the release of the former minister is the beginning of
a thaw and that a reelected and relaxed president wants to initiate
political and economic reforms in this third term (all within limits,
of course). If that is the case, other actions must follow, including
the release of other jailed political figures, such as Ilgar Mammadov.
Or maybe not. The other story out of Baku is of the government
pushing back hard against the U.S. government's sharp statement on
the election. Veteran Soviet-era survivor and Presidential Chief of
Staff Ramiz Mekhtiev claimed that the Americans had "advised" them to
give the opposition 25 percent of the vote in the poll. He again spun
the story that the United States is captive to the Armenian lobby and
"double standards" when it comes to Azerbaijan.
Both these are episodes without a trend. It will take a few weeks
before a clearer narrative emerges from Baku.
http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=53312
From: Baghdasarian