Tweet
TURKEY COULD BECOME CLOSER TO RUSSIA; WE SHOULD NOT EXPECT FRATERNAL RELATIONS, BUT EXPANSION OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
Izvestiya, Russia
Oct 21 2013
by Darya Tsoy, Konstantin Volkov, and Mariya Gorkovskaya:
[Translated from Russian]
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip
Erdogan will meet in Moscow at the end of the fall. The fourth
session of the top level Cooperation Council will be held under their
chairmanship. The two countries' leaders will sum up the results of
collaboration over the year and set tasks for the future.
Turkish experts believe that these contacts acquire special
significance in connection with the fact that Ankara's prospects of
joining the EU remain murky. The Turks will probably try to acquire
Moscow as a more forward-minded partner.
Turkish Vice Premier Bulent Arinc said 17 October that the number of
those wanting to join the EU has declined greatly among the Turkish
population. Whereas the figure used to be up to 75 per cent, according
to the latest polls it is something like 20 per cent. The functionary
sees the reason in "the irresponsible behaviour of those European
countries which are constantly creating one barrier after another."
"Russia, with its enormous market and fine opportunities for
development, energy resources, nuclear technologies, and tourism
potential, is increasingly becoming Turkey's most important economic
partner," political analyst Emre Iseri, professor at Istanbul's [as
published, should be Izmir's] Yasar University, says. "The countries
have come to an understanding that the interdependence of trade and
economic relations could lead to the deepening of relations in the
political sphere and also to joint participation in resolving regional
conflicts - in Syria and over Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh."
In addition, the expert says, Moscow and Ankara have adapted quite
swiftly to the new conditions of the modern era of globalization,
setting aside historical differences.
There is marked progress in the economic sphere - particularly in
power engineering.
"The most graphic example is the installation of the Akkuyu nuclear
power station, based on a Russian project, on Turkey's Mediterranean
seaboard," Oktay Tanrisever, an international relations expert at
Turkey's Middle East Technical University, believes.
He says that the nuclear power station will consist of four reactor
units with [water-cooled] VVER-1200 reactors. In addition, part of
the "South Stream" gas pipeline, which starts near Novorossiysk and
which, according to the plan, should be completed in 2015, will pass
through Turkey's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea. Also as of
today, according to a report by the International Strategic Research
Organization (USAK), Turkey gets up to 60 per cent of its gas from
Russia. Not to mention the millions of Russian tourists who vacation
every year in Anatolia and other Turkish resorts.
"The fact that in April of this year Turkey received the status of
partner in dialogue with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization also
signifies an improvement in political relations in the Eurasian area,
particularly with Russia," USAK expert Kerim Has believes. "The
geopolitical situation attests that if the countries' interests
intersect in the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Balkans, and the Middle
East, then the expansion of bilateral relations becomes a necessity."
Proof that Ankara is not only seeking partners in Europe is also
provided by the expansion of cooperation with Kiev, including plans
to create a free trade zone with Ukraine.
Whereas, back in the early 2000s, joining the EU was the sole priority
for the Turkish authorities (talks on this subject have been under
way since 2005), in the past decade, having strengthened economically
and geopolitically, Turkey already has the opportunity of choosing
between two vectors of cooperation. And although the desire to join
the EU remains, that is not the only path of development.
"Erdogan's aim is to strengthen influence throughout the Muslim East,"
Middle East Institute expert Sergey Seregichev says. "And also to
expand relations with the powerful states of Eurasia. So far Ankara
lacks the strength, as Turkey's recent attempt to remove Syrian
President Bashar al-Asad from power by supporting the opposition
shows."
Of course, that does not mean that Turkish policy will turn away
irrevocably from the EU. According to Vice Premier Arinc, his country
"does not intend to take a step back from its 50-year-old dream of
joining the EU."
"As a member of the EU Customs Union, Turkey is seeking more," Oktay
Tanrisever believes. "Despite the continuing obstacles, it has every
chance of joining, even if only in the long term."
Nor does Europe believe that the road there is closed to Turkey.
"Too many questions which must be resolved are under discussion,"
Didier Billion, a specialist in EU foreign policy at the Paris
Institute of International and Strategic Relations, explained. "And
Turkey's candidacy has been under discussion since 2005. Over that
time the sides have agreed on only 13 contentious issues. So that
hypothetical association to the European Union will certainly not
happen any time soon."
The political analyst says that Brussels itself must decide what it
needs. There are members in the EU who believe that the union is a
culturally homogenous association of the Christian type into which
it will be hard to integrate Muslim Turkey.
"It is indeed difficult to overcome that barrier. But without Turkey,
the EU will hardly be able to become a real geopolitical player in
the Middle East and the Caucasus. If Brussels still has such plans,
then Ankara's prospects of association will obviously increase,"
Billion says.
Here, the expert reminds us, Turkey is now far more closely linked
economically with Brussels than with other regions of the world. The
EU accounts for 50 per cent of Turkish exports and imports. And 80
per cent of direct investments come from Europe. But it is not a fact
that this situation will continue.
[Translated from Russian]
Izvestiya, Russia
Oct 21 2013
by Darya Tsoy, Konstantin Volkov, and Mariya Gorkovskaya:
[Translated from Russian]
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Premier Recep Tayyip
Erdogan will meet in Moscow at the end of the fall. The fourth
session of the top level Cooperation Council will be held under their
chairmanship. The two countries' leaders will sum up the results of
collaboration over the year and set tasks for the future.
Turkish experts believe that these contacts acquire special
significance in connection with the fact that Ankara's prospects of
joining the EU remain murky. The Turks will probably try to acquire
Moscow as a more forward-minded partner.
Turkish Vice Premier Bulent Arinc said 17 October that the number of
those wanting to join the EU has declined greatly among the Turkish
population. Whereas the figure used to be up to 75 per cent, according
to the latest polls it is something like 20 per cent. The functionary
sees the reason in "the irresponsible behaviour of those European
countries which are constantly creating one barrier after another."
"Russia, with its enormous market and fine opportunities for
development, energy resources, nuclear technologies, and tourism
potential, is increasingly becoming Turkey's most important economic
partner," political analyst Emre Iseri, professor at Istanbul's [as
published, should be Izmir's] Yasar University, says. "The countries
have come to an understanding that the interdependence of trade and
economic relations could lead to the deepening of relations in the
political sphere and also to joint participation in resolving regional
conflicts - in Syria and over Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh."
In addition, the expert says, Moscow and Ankara have adapted quite
swiftly to the new conditions of the modern era of globalization,
setting aside historical differences.
There is marked progress in the economic sphere - particularly in
power engineering.
"The most graphic example is the installation of the Akkuyu nuclear
power station, based on a Russian project, on Turkey's Mediterranean
seaboard," Oktay Tanrisever, an international relations expert at
Turkey's Middle East Technical University, believes.
He says that the nuclear power station will consist of four reactor
units with [water-cooled] VVER-1200 reactors. In addition, part of
the "South Stream" gas pipeline, which starts near Novorossiysk and
which, according to the plan, should be completed in 2015, will pass
through Turkey's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea. Also as of
today, according to a report by the International Strategic Research
Organization (USAK), Turkey gets up to 60 per cent of its gas from
Russia. Not to mention the millions of Russian tourists who vacation
every year in Anatolia and other Turkish resorts.
"The fact that in April of this year Turkey received the status of
partner in dialogue with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization also
signifies an improvement in political relations in the Eurasian area,
particularly with Russia," USAK expert Kerim Has believes. "The
geopolitical situation attests that if the countries' interests
intersect in the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Balkans, and the Middle
East, then the expansion of bilateral relations becomes a necessity."
Proof that Ankara is not only seeking partners in Europe is also
provided by the expansion of cooperation with Kiev, including plans
to create a free trade zone with Ukraine.
Whereas, back in the early 2000s, joining the EU was the sole priority
for the Turkish authorities (talks on this subject have been under
way since 2005), in the past decade, having strengthened economically
and geopolitically, Turkey already has the opportunity of choosing
between two vectors of cooperation. And although the desire to join
the EU remains, that is not the only path of development.
"Erdogan's aim is to strengthen influence throughout the Muslim East,"
Middle East Institute expert Sergey Seregichev says. "And also to
expand relations with the powerful states of Eurasia. So far Ankara
lacks the strength, as Turkey's recent attempt to remove Syrian
President Bashar al-Asad from power by supporting the opposition
shows."
Of course, that does not mean that Turkish policy will turn away
irrevocably from the EU. According to Vice Premier Arinc, his country
"does not intend to take a step back from its 50-year-old dream of
joining the EU."
"As a member of the EU Customs Union, Turkey is seeking more," Oktay
Tanrisever believes. "Despite the continuing obstacles, it has every
chance of joining, even if only in the long term."
Nor does Europe believe that the road there is closed to Turkey.
"Too many questions which must be resolved are under discussion,"
Didier Billion, a specialist in EU foreign policy at the Paris
Institute of International and Strategic Relations, explained. "And
Turkey's candidacy has been under discussion since 2005. Over that
time the sides have agreed on only 13 contentious issues. So that
hypothetical association to the European Union will certainly not
happen any time soon."
The political analyst says that Brussels itself must decide what it
needs. There are members in the EU who believe that the union is a
culturally homogenous association of the Christian type into which
it will be hard to integrate Muslim Turkey.
"It is indeed difficult to overcome that barrier. But without Turkey,
the EU will hardly be able to become a real geopolitical player in
the Middle East and the Caucasus. If Brussels still has such plans,
then Ankara's prospects of association will obviously increase,"
Billion says.
Here, the expert reminds us, Turkey is now far more closely linked
economically with Brussels than with other regions of the world. The
EU accounts for 50 per cent of Turkish exports and imports. And 80
per cent of direct investments come from Europe. But it is not a fact
that this situation will continue.
[Translated from Russian]