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RUSSIA'S MOTIVATION FOR WAR
Russia's policy is not just becoming increasingly uncertain but also
reminds prostitution. Such characteristics do not allow defining more
or less the country's behavior, even regarding the agreements in place.
The existence of the Russian base in Gyumri is in the interests of
Russia, not Armenia, and the Armenian political government is not
aware of its affairs.
It is hard to tell that Russia is interested in the defeat of
Azerbaijan in the war because first it would reduce the sales of
Russian weapon, second, it may lead to Turkey's intervention. Besides,
such intervention will be possible in the result of little
participation of Russia in the war.
For its part it could lead to NATO's intervention. In this regard,
Russia will prefer contacting Turkey during the war, which will
lead to agreements on preventing any military success of Armenia,
even insignificant.
NATO and the United States will continue to carry out the task of
Turkey's containment in case of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Turkey demonstrates its ambitions and pretensions to the United
States and NATO but Syrian events demonstrated that despite being
dissatisfied with the West's position Turkey did not dare intervene
in Syria directly, without agreeing with the United States and NATO.
Nobody can limit Turkey's defense support to Azerbaijan but the United
States and NATO hope to contain Turkey in case of a war in the South
Caucasus. Therefore, relations with Russia will be helpful to Turkey.
Russia's foothold in the Black Sea and Caucasus in not strong enough.
At least, it is far behind Turkey in all dimensions except nuclear
containment. Deployment of the Russian military base of Gyumri would
soon reveal the inability of this base in particular and the Russian
armed forces in general. Therefore, Russia would rather use this
military base for blackmail and defeatist claims to Armenia.
Hence, however it is called in the professional military language,
Russia keeps in mind the military defeat of Armenia as a means of
protecting its interests in the region.
The next step is territorial concessions. Having lost Western political
support, there is no need to expect that the United Stated, NATO
and the EU will join this regional game if their interests are met,
i.e. NATO member Turkey's intervention is prevented with all the
mutual commitments, the oil and gas complex is saved, expansion of
Russian influence on the South Caucasus and its military strengthening.
In this situation Russia's intentions are acceptable for the West.
Thereby they will demonstrate what awaits a country which thoughtlessly
and shamefully rejected cooperation with the Euro-Atlantic
cooperation. So, it is worth figuring out what should be done with
the Russian military base in case of a war.
The "fifth column" in Armenia will not appear at the front line, of
course, and will be limited to showing televised images of Russian
armed forces during a demonstration of military force in Yerevan.
Igor Muradyan 09:17 26/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31181
Russia's policy is not just becoming increasingly uncertain but also
reminds prostitution. Such characteristics do not allow defining more
or less the country's behavior, even regarding the agreements in place.
The existence of the Russian base in Gyumri is in the interests of
Russia, not Armenia, and the Armenian political government is not
aware of its affairs.
It is hard to tell that Russia is interested in the defeat of
Azerbaijan in the war because first it would reduce the sales of
Russian weapon, second, it may lead to Turkey's intervention. Besides,
such intervention will be possible in the result of little
participation of Russia in the war.
For its part it could lead to NATO's intervention. In this regard,
Russia will prefer contacting Turkey during the war, which will
lead to agreements on preventing any military success of Armenia,
even insignificant.
NATO and the United States will continue to carry out the task of
Turkey's containment in case of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Turkey demonstrates its ambitions and pretensions to the United
States and NATO but Syrian events demonstrated that despite being
dissatisfied with the West's position Turkey did not dare intervene
in Syria directly, without agreeing with the United States and NATO.
Nobody can limit Turkey's defense support to Azerbaijan but the United
States and NATO hope to contain Turkey in case of a war in the South
Caucasus. Therefore, relations with Russia will be helpful to Turkey.
Russia's foothold in the Black Sea and Caucasus in not strong enough.
At least, it is far behind Turkey in all dimensions except nuclear
containment. Deployment of the Russian military base of Gyumri would
soon reveal the inability of this base in particular and the Russian
armed forces in general. Therefore, Russia would rather use this
military base for blackmail and defeatist claims to Armenia.
Hence, however it is called in the professional military language,
Russia keeps in mind the military defeat of Armenia as a means of
protecting its interests in the region.
The next step is territorial concessions. Having lost Western political
support, there is no need to expect that the United Stated, NATO
and the EU will join this regional game if their interests are met,
i.e. NATO member Turkey's intervention is prevented with all the
mutual commitments, the oil and gas complex is saved, expansion of
Russian influence on the South Caucasus and its military strengthening.
In this situation Russia's intentions are acceptable for the West.
Thereby they will demonstrate what awaits a country which thoughtlessly
and shamefully rejected cooperation with the Euro-Atlantic
cooperation. So, it is worth figuring out what should be done with
the Russian military base in case of a war.
The "fifth column" in Armenia will not appear at the front line, of
course, and will be limited to showing televised images of Russian
armed forces during a demonstration of military force in Yerevan.
Igor Muradyan 09:17 26/10/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31181