Tweet
U-TURN: OFFICIAL YEREVAN'S 'DESIRE' TO JOIN RUSSIA-LED CUSTOMS UNION COMES AS 'BIG SURPRISE' FOR MANY IN ARMENIA
ANALYSIS | 04.09.13 | 11:26
Photo: www.president.am
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan on September 3 made a statement
in Moscow that proved the most unexpected for Armenia. He said that
during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin he 'confirmed
the desire' of Armenia to join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus
and Kazakhstan.
The statement came as a great surprise for Armenia, where few have
heard about this "desire". Literally hours before this announcement,
senior member of President Sargsyan's ruling Republican Party of
Armenia Galust Sahakyan said that Armenia's entry into the Customs
Union was out of the question and that in November Armenia will
initial an association agreement with the EU.
Such a conflict of opinion gave rise to suspicion in Armenia that in
Moscow Sargsyan came under pressure and that he was going to Moscow
without a decision to accede to the Customs Union. Analysts link this
pressure primarily to the Karabakh issue.
After the first wave of shock in Armenia a more sober assessment
of the situation is being made. Experts note that Sargsyan did not
sign papers, but only declared this "desire". This means that its
realization still will have to be preceded by discussions and it
should pass several instances. During these discussions Sargsyan will
have to explain what kind of pressure he had been under and how the
refusal to join the Customs Union will threaten Armenia and Karabakh.
After the Sargsyan-Putin meeting there was an announcement of a set
of investment-related and other projects, but still at the level of
declarations. For example, Putin stated that Russia intends to invest
heavily in the energy and transport sectors in Armenia, in particular
in the railway and the nuclear power plant. But it is clear to even
laymen that these promises are doubtful and Sargsyan is unlikely to
have 'bought' them.
Armenia's 'desire' to join the Customs Union may well remain a mere
desire, as there are not that many forces 'desiring' it. Even most
of those who have opposed the EU-Armenia Association have not spoken
ardently in favor of joining the Customs Union. This means that the
Armenian society can speak out against the institutionalization of this
'desire'.
Political analyst Igor Muradyan considers the statements in Moscow
to be more of a 'show', though he believes that the implementation of
these statements may become a new Russian occupation for Armenia. This
show, he says, was needed by Putin on the eve of the G20 summit in St.
Petersburg, which will start on September 5.
U.S. President Barack Obama earlier said that he would go to the
summit of G20, but would not personally meet with Putin. Besides, U.S.
Congressmen seems to be in favor of a strike against Syria, and if
that happens, Russia will lose its last military base in the Middle
East. And Karabakh, which has a long border with Iran, may become a
new 'base'.
In any case, the statement of Sargsyan in Moscow is more like a
time-out taken under intense pressure or support of an 'old friend'
ahead of a difficult duel. Though, the foreign minister of Lithuania,
the country currently presiding over the EU, and other officials in
Brussels have already stated that Armenia has blocked its chances of
signing a free trade deal with the European Union by choosing to join
the Russia-led Customs Union.
ANALYSIS | 04.09.13 | 11:26
Photo: www.president.am
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan on September 3 made a statement
in Moscow that proved the most unexpected for Armenia. He said that
during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin he 'confirmed
the desire' of Armenia to join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus
and Kazakhstan.
The statement came as a great surprise for Armenia, where few have
heard about this "desire". Literally hours before this announcement,
senior member of President Sargsyan's ruling Republican Party of
Armenia Galust Sahakyan said that Armenia's entry into the Customs
Union was out of the question and that in November Armenia will
initial an association agreement with the EU.
Such a conflict of opinion gave rise to suspicion in Armenia that in
Moscow Sargsyan came under pressure and that he was going to Moscow
without a decision to accede to the Customs Union. Analysts link this
pressure primarily to the Karabakh issue.
After the first wave of shock in Armenia a more sober assessment
of the situation is being made. Experts note that Sargsyan did not
sign papers, but only declared this "desire". This means that its
realization still will have to be preceded by discussions and it
should pass several instances. During these discussions Sargsyan will
have to explain what kind of pressure he had been under and how the
refusal to join the Customs Union will threaten Armenia and Karabakh.
After the Sargsyan-Putin meeting there was an announcement of a set
of investment-related and other projects, but still at the level of
declarations. For example, Putin stated that Russia intends to invest
heavily in the energy and transport sectors in Armenia, in particular
in the railway and the nuclear power plant. But it is clear to even
laymen that these promises are doubtful and Sargsyan is unlikely to
have 'bought' them.
Armenia's 'desire' to join the Customs Union may well remain a mere
desire, as there are not that many forces 'desiring' it. Even most
of those who have opposed the EU-Armenia Association have not spoken
ardently in favor of joining the Customs Union. This means that the
Armenian society can speak out against the institutionalization of this
'desire'.
Political analyst Igor Muradyan considers the statements in Moscow
to be more of a 'show', though he believes that the implementation of
these statements may become a new Russian occupation for Armenia. This
show, he says, was needed by Putin on the eve of the G20 summit in St.
Petersburg, which will start on September 5.
U.S. President Barack Obama earlier said that he would go to the
summit of G20, but would not personally meet with Putin. Besides, U.S.
Congressmen seems to be in favor of a strike against Syria, and if
that happens, Russia will lose its last military base in the Middle
East. And Karabakh, which has a long border with Iran, may become a
new 'base'.
In any case, the statement of Sargsyan in Moscow is more like a
time-out taken under intense pressure or support of an 'old friend'
ahead of a difficult duel. Though, the foreign minister of Lithuania,
the country currently presiding over the EU, and other officials in
Brussels have already stated that Armenia has blocked its chances of
signing a free trade deal with the European Union by choosing to join
the Russia-led Customs Union.