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NEO-OTTOMANISM AND EURASIAN DOCTRINE VS. ARMENIA
Neo-Ottomanism has been put forth by the new Turkish elite as one of
the world's most ambitious foreign political doctrines. To some extent,
Neo-Ottomanism is being implemented along with a doctrine put forth
by Russia's government, which is called Eurasian for whatever reason.
Like in Turkey, in Russia the new doctrine has been initiated by
the new elite (in a historical context) who are driven by personal
and group interests rather than imperial ones. In addition, any
technique is used to achieve the goal, including blackmail and
aggressive campaigns.
These ambitions are not so popular but are based on fundamental
populism. Most probably, both doctrines have run into similar problems
and counteraction. Armenia must follow more attentively and respond to
the ambitions of Turkey and Russia because Armenia is still exposed
to the traditional and real threat - a deal and division between
those states.
Turkey was able to experience the failure of its own regional policy
and understand that in a confrontation with the United States it
cannot achieve its goals and even keep what it has achieved earlier.
Turkey is facing a new economic crisis and is concerned that the
United States and Great Britain, as in 1999, will cause a collapse
of the Turkish economy according to the previous scenario.
The United States has staged new conflicts and an extremely unfavorable
situation around Turkey and reached its goal. Turkey has accepted
the American conditions and will be limited to its modest role in
the regions, hoping for a more favorable situation in the future.
The U.S.-Turkey relations are currently less tense. The reason is not
the United States concessions. The Americans have offered a lot to
Turkey but have also demanded a lot of concessions. To sum up Turkey's
concessions, those have lead to limited ambitions in the region.
Turkey has avoided escalation with Russia, trying to have Russia
back it up. However, the Americans understood that Turkish ambitions
and demands in the Black Sea-Caucasian region will one way or another
lead to a confrontation with Russia. There is not a real confrontation
however Russia bewares it indeed.
Most probably, the United States is interested in re-orienting Turkish
expansion towards the Black Sea and the Caucasus, which has always
been viewed as an option for distracting Turkey and, most importantly,
a back-up option for its conflict with Russia.
However, activation of the Russian policy is not the only problem
the United States is facing in regard to the Turkish expansion. The
United States must address Turkey's containment in the Caucasus. The
hookup of Armenian factors - genocide recognition, Armenian-Turkish
normalization, Karabakh, Javakheti and South Georgian Armenians,
domestic scrambles in Armenia.
One way or another, problems are activated in the South Caucasus but
in the format of campaigns and pseudo-intentions rather than real
politics. The Americans are trying to keep Turkey under control by
reducing Turkey to "concessions" and "embarrassment".
Practically, Turkey refrained from comments and statements on the U.S.
intentions in the Black Sea, agreed to refrain from interventions in
the South Caucasus and Iraq, as well as prevention of an intervention
in Syria. The United States provided military assistance to Turkey
instead.
Of course, Turkey will continue to attract attention as a state
with its own ambitions but cannot disagree with the outstanding
representative of the American political science who said in a private
conversation in Washington that Turkey will return but the question
is how it will return, riding a white horse or creeping.
Nevertheless, Turkish is sending signals of its intentions to
"regulate" relations with Armenia, especially at the top level. No
doubt it is part of the U.S.-Turkish agreements, and the United States
is going to continue reinforcing its levers of control and pressure
on Turkey.
Igor Muradyan 23:17 24/09/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30954
Neo-Ottomanism has been put forth by the new Turkish elite as one of
the world's most ambitious foreign political doctrines. To some extent,
Neo-Ottomanism is being implemented along with a doctrine put forth
by Russia's government, which is called Eurasian for whatever reason.
Like in Turkey, in Russia the new doctrine has been initiated by
the new elite (in a historical context) who are driven by personal
and group interests rather than imperial ones. In addition, any
technique is used to achieve the goal, including blackmail and
aggressive campaigns.
These ambitions are not so popular but are based on fundamental
populism. Most probably, both doctrines have run into similar problems
and counteraction. Armenia must follow more attentively and respond to
the ambitions of Turkey and Russia because Armenia is still exposed
to the traditional and real threat - a deal and division between
those states.
Turkey was able to experience the failure of its own regional policy
and understand that in a confrontation with the United States it
cannot achieve its goals and even keep what it has achieved earlier.
Turkey is facing a new economic crisis and is concerned that the
United States and Great Britain, as in 1999, will cause a collapse
of the Turkish economy according to the previous scenario.
The United States has staged new conflicts and an extremely unfavorable
situation around Turkey and reached its goal. Turkey has accepted
the American conditions and will be limited to its modest role in
the regions, hoping for a more favorable situation in the future.
The U.S.-Turkey relations are currently less tense. The reason is not
the United States concessions. The Americans have offered a lot to
Turkey but have also demanded a lot of concessions. To sum up Turkey's
concessions, those have lead to limited ambitions in the region.
Turkey has avoided escalation with Russia, trying to have Russia
back it up. However, the Americans understood that Turkish ambitions
and demands in the Black Sea-Caucasian region will one way or another
lead to a confrontation with Russia. There is not a real confrontation
however Russia bewares it indeed.
Most probably, the United States is interested in re-orienting Turkish
expansion towards the Black Sea and the Caucasus, which has always
been viewed as an option for distracting Turkey and, most importantly,
a back-up option for its conflict with Russia.
However, activation of the Russian policy is not the only problem
the United States is facing in regard to the Turkish expansion. The
United States must address Turkey's containment in the Caucasus. The
hookup of Armenian factors - genocide recognition, Armenian-Turkish
normalization, Karabakh, Javakheti and South Georgian Armenians,
domestic scrambles in Armenia.
One way or another, problems are activated in the South Caucasus but
in the format of campaigns and pseudo-intentions rather than real
politics. The Americans are trying to keep Turkey under control by
reducing Turkey to "concessions" and "embarrassment".
Practically, Turkey refrained from comments and statements on the U.S.
intentions in the Black Sea, agreed to refrain from interventions in
the South Caucasus and Iraq, as well as prevention of an intervention
in Syria. The United States provided military assistance to Turkey
instead.
Of course, Turkey will continue to attract attention as a state
with its own ambitions but cannot disagree with the outstanding
representative of the American political science who said in a private
conversation in Washington that Turkey will return but the question
is how it will return, riding a white horse or creeping.
Nevertheless, Turkish is sending signals of its intentions to
"regulate" relations with Armenia, especially at the top level. No
doubt it is part of the U.S.-Turkish agreements, and the United States
is going to continue reinforcing its levers of control and pressure
on Turkey.
Igor Muradyan 23:17 24/09/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30954