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EurasiaNet.org
Sept 29 2013
ICG: Heightened Risk Of Armenia-Azerbaijan War
September 29, 2013 - 12:02pm, by Joshua Kucera
The risk of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is increasing and
international meditors need to step up efforts to make sure that
conflict doesn't arise in the "coming weeks and months," says the
International Crisis Group in a new report.
The report (pdf), Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks, argues
that internal tension in both Baku and Yerevan could cause a small
conflict on the border -- which occur nearly constantly -- to spiral
into a full-fledged war. In Azerbaijan, presidential elections will be
held next month, and Armenia's recent abrupt announcement that it is
joining Russia's Customs Union has thrown that country's political
scene into turmoil, the report argues. This, combined with the arms
both sides (but especially Azerbaijan) have been acquiring, could be a
deadly mixture, the ICG argues: "Confrontation, low-intensity but
volatile, between Azerbaijan and Armenia has entered a period of
heightened sensitivity. The ICG "does not predict a second war is
either imminent or more likely than not. It does suggest the near-term
threats to stability are becoming more acute... Vigorous international
engagement is needed to lessen chances of violent escalation during
coming weeks and months."
The report's authors noted that in Baku, the planning for a military
solution to the conflict appears to be getting more detailed: "Baku
has increasingly emphasised a military solution, publicly and
privately. Strategic planners discuss this in much more specific terms
than even a year ago. Air strikes are mentioned as a first stage in
any offensive, targeting air defences, then infrastructure. 'We are
confident we can retake a significant amount of territory in a
relatively short time and force the Armenians to make a deal', said
one." Armenians, meanwhile, are wondering if it may be worth carrying
out a preemptive strike against Azerbaijan while the military balance
is not too far in the latter's favor.
Unfortunately, the report notes, the international efforts to tamp
down the conflict do not appear to be up to the challenge. It
criticized the international mediators of the OSCE's Minsk Group for
being ineffective, and in the case of Russia, having too many
interests in the region to be an honest broker: "The strong and
coordinated intern
ational pressure needed to break the diplomatic deadlock is lacking...
. Russia's position raises particular questions about the format's
effectiveness. It is not only a Minsk Group co-chair but also has
major strategic interests in the South Caucasus and supplies arms to
both sides of the conflict."
The full report, as is usually the case with the ICG, is worth
reading. But this one is especially foreboding.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67563
From: A. Papazian
Sept 29 2013
ICG: Heightened Risk Of Armenia-Azerbaijan War
September 29, 2013 - 12:02pm, by Joshua Kucera
The risk of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is increasing and
international meditors need to step up efforts to make sure that
conflict doesn't arise in the "coming weeks and months," says the
International Crisis Group in a new report.
The report (pdf), Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks, argues
that internal tension in both Baku and Yerevan could cause a small
conflict on the border -- which occur nearly constantly -- to spiral
into a full-fledged war. In Azerbaijan, presidential elections will be
held next month, and Armenia's recent abrupt announcement that it is
joining Russia's Customs Union has thrown that country's political
scene into turmoil, the report argues. This, combined with the arms
both sides (but especially Azerbaijan) have been acquiring, could be a
deadly mixture, the ICG argues: "Confrontation, low-intensity but
volatile, between Azerbaijan and Armenia has entered a period of
heightened sensitivity. The ICG "does not predict a second war is
either imminent or more likely than not. It does suggest the near-term
threats to stability are becoming more acute... Vigorous international
engagement is needed to lessen chances of violent escalation during
coming weeks and months."
The report's authors noted that in Baku, the planning for a military
solution to the conflict appears to be getting more detailed: "Baku
has increasingly emphasised a military solution, publicly and
privately. Strategic planners discuss this in much more specific terms
than even a year ago. Air strikes are mentioned as a first stage in
any offensive, targeting air defences, then infrastructure. 'We are
confident we can retake a significant amount of territory in a
relatively short time and force the Armenians to make a deal', said
one." Armenians, meanwhile, are wondering if it may be worth carrying
out a preemptive strike against Azerbaijan while the military balance
is not too far in the latter's favor.
Unfortunately, the report notes, the international efforts to tamp
down the conflict do not appear to be up to the challenge. It
criticized the international mediators of the OSCE's Minsk Group for
being ineffective, and in the case of Russia, having too many
interests in the region to be an honest broker: "The strong and
coordinated intern
ational pressure needed to break the diplomatic deadlock is lacking...
. Russia's position raises particular questions about the format's
effectiveness. It is not only a Minsk Group co-chair but also has
major strategic interests in the South Caucasus and supplies arms to
both sides of the conflict."
The full report, as is usually the case with the ICG, is worth
reading. But this one is especially foreboding.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67563
From: A. Papazian