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PUTIN TO TACKLE THREAT OF KARABAKH WAR WITH LEADERS OF ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Aug 6 2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin will this week host leaders
of arch-foes Armenia and Azerbaijan for talks as fears grow that
military clashes may lead to a resumption of one of the bloodiest
post-Soviet wars.
At the heart of the dispute is the fate of Nagorny Karabakh, a region
mostly inhabited by ethnic Armenians that broke away from Azerbaijan
with the help of Armenia in a war that claimed some 30,000 lives
between 1991 and 1994.
The conflict has been festering ever since, with international
mediators unable to find a political solution. Both countries remain
on a war footing and the brittle status quo has been punctuated by
occasional skirmishes on the front.
Last week the simmering tensions boiled over into the fiercest clashes
seen since a ceasefire was agreed in 1994. At least 18 soldiers have
lost their lives in the latest surge of violence.
The tensions between energy-rich Azerbaijan and Moscow-allied Armenia
are escalating as ex-Soviet republics are uneasily watching the
Kremlin's historic confrontation with the West over Ukraine, where
government forces are battling Russian-backed separatists.
Some experts warn that Putin's move to redraw the European map by
taking over the peninsula of Crimea in March and the raging Ukrainian
crisis could re-open old wounds or even spark new conflicts among
former Soviet countries.
Analysts in Moscow said it was important for the Kremlin to try and
quell the tensions between Azerbaijan, home to Western energy giants
BP and ExxonMobil, and Armenia, which has been seeking closer economic
ties with Russia.
"This will be a confirmation of Russia's role as main guarantor
of security across the post-Soviet space and will remove fears
that periphery around Russia will go up in flames," said Timofei
Bordachev, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Comprehensive European
and International Studies.
Putin will host Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and Ilham Aliyev
of Azerbaijan for separate meetings at his Black Sea residence in
Sochi before convening trilateral talks.
"When they will end up at the same place at the same time, talks
about Nagorny Karabakh will probably be unavoidable," Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Aug. 4.
Lavrov didn't provide any details of the upcoming negotiations,
saying only they will take place at the end of the week. Armenia has
said negotiations could take place either Aug. 8 or Aug. 9.
"Such meetings provide opportunities to start, to continue a dialogue,"
Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan said Aug. 6. "We all know
well that dialogue is the only way to resolve questions peacefully."
Russia's top diplomat admitted that helping the two countries reach a
breakthrough after two decades of mediating efforts would not be easy.
"A multitude of attempts have been made and every time it seemed
that some important milestone for reaching agreement was in sight
but something stood in the way," said Lavrov.
International mediators Russia, France and the United States have all
expressed concern over the outburst of violence. Ohanyan said he did
not expect tensions along the border to ease ahead of the meeting,
but said the risk was low of the clashes erupting into a general
conflagration.
He also sought to lower expectations about the meeting. "Expectations
that after the meeting there will be complete peace or a return to
a full ceasefire are misplaced," said Ohanyan.
Russia seeks 'expand influence'
In his efforts to mediate the crisis, Putin appears to be stealing
the thunder of France's President Francois Hollande who sought to
organise a similar meeting and visited both countries in May.
"Unfortunately, Hollande's proposal was general in nature and did not
really move the settlement process forward," Azerbaijani lawmaker
Rasim Musabekov told AFP. But many are also sceptical that Putin's
efforts will bear fruit.
"The top task of this meeting will be to take the warring sides
back to the 1994 ceasefire regime," said Armenian analyst Hrant
Melik-Shahnazaryan.
"Nothing else should be expected from this meeting." Some are wary
about the timing of the latest clashes, suspecting they may be part
of a new geopolitical power play on the continent.
"The United States wants to set afire the entire Russian periphery
because it is acting according to the logic of the Cold War," said
Bordachev.
Some experts in Armenia however suspect the skirmishes may be in the
interests of Russia, as they believe Moscow wants to station troops
in Nagorny Karabakh to expand its influence in the Caucasus.
August/06/2014
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/putin-to-tackle-threat-of-karabakh-war-with-leaders-of-armenia-azerbaijan.aspx?pageID=238&nID=70059&NewsCatID=351
From: Baghdasarian
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Aug 6 2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin will this week host leaders
of arch-foes Armenia and Azerbaijan for talks as fears grow that
military clashes may lead to a resumption of one of the bloodiest
post-Soviet wars.
At the heart of the dispute is the fate of Nagorny Karabakh, a region
mostly inhabited by ethnic Armenians that broke away from Azerbaijan
with the help of Armenia in a war that claimed some 30,000 lives
between 1991 and 1994.
The conflict has been festering ever since, with international
mediators unable to find a political solution. Both countries remain
on a war footing and the brittle status quo has been punctuated by
occasional skirmishes on the front.
Last week the simmering tensions boiled over into the fiercest clashes
seen since a ceasefire was agreed in 1994. At least 18 soldiers have
lost their lives in the latest surge of violence.
The tensions between energy-rich Azerbaijan and Moscow-allied Armenia
are escalating as ex-Soviet republics are uneasily watching the
Kremlin's historic confrontation with the West over Ukraine, where
government forces are battling Russian-backed separatists.
Some experts warn that Putin's move to redraw the European map by
taking over the peninsula of Crimea in March and the raging Ukrainian
crisis could re-open old wounds or even spark new conflicts among
former Soviet countries.
Analysts in Moscow said it was important for the Kremlin to try and
quell the tensions between Azerbaijan, home to Western energy giants
BP and ExxonMobil, and Armenia, which has been seeking closer economic
ties with Russia.
"This will be a confirmation of Russia's role as main guarantor
of security across the post-Soviet space and will remove fears
that periphery around Russia will go up in flames," said Timofei
Bordachev, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Comprehensive European
and International Studies.
Putin will host Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and Ilham Aliyev
of Azerbaijan for separate meetings at his Black Sea residence in
Sochi before convening trilateral talks.
"When they will end up at the same place at the same time, talks
about Nagorny Karabakh will probably be unavoidable," Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Aug. 4.
Lavrov didn't provide any details of the upcoming negotiations,
saying only they will take place at the end of the week. Armenia has
said negotiations could take place either Aug. 8 or Aug. 9.
"Such meetings provide opportunities to start, to continue a dialogue,"
Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan said Aug. 6. "We all know
well that dialogue is the only way to resolve questions peacefully."
Russia's top diplomat admitted that helping the two countries reach a
breakthrough after two decades of mediating efforts would not be easy.
"A multitude of attempts have been made and every time it seemed
that some important milestone for reaching agreement was in sight
but something stood in the way," said Lavrov.
International mediators Russia, France and the United States have all
expressed concern over the outburst of violence. Ohanyan said he did
not expect tensions along the border to ease ahead of the meeting,
but said the risk was low of the clashes erupting into a general
conflagration.
He also sought to lower expectations about the meeting. "Expectations
that after the meeting there will be complete peace or a return to
a full ceasefire are misplaced," said Ohanyan.
Russia seeks 'expand influence'
In his efforts to mediate the crisis, Putin appears to be stealing
the thunder of France's President Francois Hollande who sought to
organise a similar meeting and visited both countries in May.
"Unfortunately, Hollande's proposal was general in nature and did not
really move the settlement process forward," Azerbaijani lawmaker
Rasim Musabekov told AFP. But many are also sceptical that Putin's
efforts will bear fruit.
"The top task of this meeting will be to take the warring sides
back to the 1994 ceasefire regime," said Armenian analyst Hrant
Melik-Shahnazaryan.
"Nothing else should be expected from this meeting." Some are wary
about the timing of the latest clashes, suspecting they may be part
of a new geopolitical power play on the continent.
"The United States wants to set afire the entire Russian periphery
because it is acting according to the logic of the Cold War," said
Bordachev.
Some experts in Armenia however suspect the skirmishes may be in the
interests of Russia, as they believe Moscow wants to station troops
in Nagorny Karabakh to expand its influence in the Caucasus.
August/06/2014
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/putin-to-tackle-threat-of-karabakh-war-with-leaders-of-armenia-azerbaijan.aspx?pageID=238&nID=70059&NewsCatID=351
From: Baghdasarian