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KARABAKH LINE OF CONTACT SEES SHARP ESCALATION IN VIOLENCE
EurasiaNet.org
Jan 24 2014
January 24, 2014 - 10:55am, by Joshua Kucera
Conflict along the front line between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces
has escalated dramatically over the last two days, with Azerbaijani
air forces crossing into the air space of the self-declared Nagorno
Karabakh republic. Azerbaijan also claims to have destroyed an
Armenian vehicle and to have repelled an atempted Armenian incursion
across the line of contact. And the Azerbaijani defense ministry
has claimed that they overheard commands being given to Armenian
forces in a language other than Armenian, suggesting a foreign hand
(though what the language was was not specified.) Meanwhile, there
are reported civilian casualties on both sides.
All of this has occurred as the foreign ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan prepare to meet in Paris, the latest such meeting in a
recent renewal of diplomatic efforts between the two sides.
Most of the news from this recent escalation has been coming from
Azerbaijani sources, and Armenia has been quiet about the Azerbaijani
claims. And Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan on Friday played down
the threat of war between the two sides, "I find it less likely as
the Azerbaijani leadership has once again got convinced of Armenian
soldier's invincibility and clearly understands that Armenian Armed
Forces are always ready to overcome the challenges they face,"
Ohanyan said.
The upsurge in violence is most likely connected with the Paris talks,
said Alex Jackson, an expert on Caspian regional issues and editor of
the Caucasian Review of International Affairs. "If so, it's unclear
who is responsible and why they would want to disrupt the talks.
Armenia could be trying to prevent progress towards a peace settlement
and thus a withdrawal; Azerbaijan might be trying to destabilize the
situation and draw more attention to it," he told The Bug Pit.
It could also be related to the recent personnel turnovers in the
Azerbaijani military leadership, Jackson said: "Another scenario is
that it's the actions, or lack of, by new Azerbaijani Defence Minister
Zakir Hasanov. Hasanov is not a military man, he's an internal affairs
apparatchik. Perhaps demonstrating the armed forces' combat readiness
is a good to way to prove his credentials to Aliyev. Alternatively,
it could be that he doesn't have sufficient control yet, and frontline
commanders are escalating things beyond their authorisation."
And it could also be a result of tactical decisions made by low-level
commanders spiraling out of control, Jackson added:
A skirmish on one sector of the line is often followed by gunfire
along a very wide area. If a commando group did attempt to penetrate
or test the line (of either side), this will be met with a comparable
retaliation, which will invite its own response.
So earlier in January (11-13th) we saw some heavy skirmishing. The
alleged Azeri commando raid could have been a response to that;
in retaliation the Armenians respond in kind, and in response the
Azeris blow up a vehicle and deploy fighter jets. I don't think
either side is going to take a political decision to go to war;
but I do think that on the local level, both sides have an interest
in a punitive response to each individual incident. Taken together,
that can add up to a serious destabilization.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67975
EurasiaNet.org
Jan 24 2014
January 24, 2014 - 10:55am, by Joshua Kucera
Conflict along the front line between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces
has escalated dramatically over the last two days, with Azerbaijani
air forces crossing into the air space of the self-declared Nagorno
Karabakh republic. Azerbaijan also claims to have destroyed an
Armenian vehicle and to have repelled an atempted Armenian incursion
across the line of contact. And the Azerbaijani defense ministry
has claimed that they overheard commands being given to Armenian
forces in a language other than Armenian, suggesting a foreign hand
(though what the language was was not specified.) Meanwhile, there
are reported civilian casualties on both sides.
All of this has occurred as the foreign ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan prepare to meet in Paris, the latest such meeting in a
recent renewal of diplomatic efforts between the two sides.
Most of the news from this recent escalation has been coming from
Azerbaijani sources, and Armenia has been quiet about the Azerbaijani
claims. And Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan on Friday played down
the threat of war between the two sides, "I find it less likely as
the Azerbaijani leadership has once again got convinced of Armenian
soldier's invincibility and clearly understands that Armenian Armed
Forces are always ready to overcome the challenges they face,"
Ohanyan said.
The upsurge in violence is most likely connected with the Paris talks,
said Alex Jackson, an expert on Caspian regional issues and editor of
the Caucasian Review of International Affairs. "If so, it's unclear
who is responsible and why they would want to disrupt the talks.
Armenia could be trying to prevent progress towards a peace settlement
and thus a withdrawal; Azerbaijan might be trying to destabilize the
situation and draw more attention to it," he told The Bug Pit.
It could also be related to the recent personnel turnovers in the
Azerbaijani military leadership, Jackson said: "Another scenario is
that it's the actions, or lack of, by new Azerbaijani Defence Minister
Zakir Hasanov. Hasanov is not a military man, he's an internal affairs
apparatchik. Perhaps demonstrating the armed forces' combat readiness
is a good to way to prove his credentials to Aliyev. Alternatively,
it could be that he doesn't have sufficient control yet, and frontline
commanders are escalating things beyond their authorisation."
And it could also be a result of tactical decisions made by low-level
commanders spiraling out of control, Jackson added:
A skirmish on one sector of the line is often followed by gunfire
along a very wide area. If a commando group did attempt to penetrate
or test the line (of either side), this will be met with a comparable
retaliation, which will invite its own response.
So earlier in January (11-13th) we saw some heavy skirmishing. The
alleged Azeri commando raid could have been a response to that;
in retaliation the Armenians respond in kind, and in response the
Azeris blow up a vehicle and deploy fighter jets. I don't think
either side is going to take a political decision to go to war;
but I do think that on the local level, both sides have an interest
in a punitive response to each individual incident. Taken together,
that can add up to a serious destabilization.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67975