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TURKEY GOT A CHANCE TO ACT AGAINST ARMENIA
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Monday, 03 March 2014, 14:25
The paradox is that it is happening when the United States has lost
interest in foreign policy, political and military presence in the
region and the European Union and the leading European states are
sincerely reluctant to deal with modest foreign political tasks. The
Western community tried demonstratively to limit its activity but
the West was suddenly pushed towards intensive isolation and blockade
of Russia.
The policy of isolation and blockade on behalf of the Western
community had a passive and relative character; such a policy could
be referred to as containment (the priority device of the United
States), not isolation. Currently it reminds of the policy of the
United States and the West on Russia at the moment of deployment of
forces in Afghanistan. If a hothead hits a Ukrainian civil plane,
the story of the Korean Boeing will repeat.
There is reason to expect certain instructions and introduction for
the troops on behalf of the command of NATO states. The U.S. and UK
navy will be put in movement towards certain directions. No doubt
Poland and Lithuania will accept such a turn as their star time and
will take efforts to provide military and technical assistance to
Ukraine, and NATO will do it through them.
So far the West has not taken specific and determined actions to
thwart the Russian economy, now all the great powers of the West
are interested in this. A tougher scenario would be the beginning
of a "cold war" in the result of which Russia will be hurled back
socially and economically for decades, will lose opportunities for
economic and social development, will have to consume its natural
and economic resources by an accelerated schedule. The result will
be another collapse of economy, political crisis and historic defeat.
V. Putin or his successor will be arrested and they will follow Mikhail
Gorbachev's destiny (at best). A lot of Armenians will remember him
as someone who understood their needs and hopes well. In addition,
it is taking place under less favorable political and historical
conditions when the West, like never before, is unanimous in its policy
on Russia. It did not gain partners in the South, and its key stake,
China, hurried to avoid Russia's hopes, including for SCO.
Russia will require that its vassals in CSTO react adequately,
and Armenia will be most vulnerable. It is possible that Russia
has already demanded something from Armenia, which is acceptable
considering Armenia's commitments to Russia. It should be noted that
Ukraine has modern rocket systems and could hit the Russian military
base in Gyumri.
In this situation Turkey and Azerbaijan will have every reason to act
analogically and use force against Armenia. Turkey has an opportunity
to "defend" its brotherly Azerbaijani people. Turkey has also received
a powerful leverage to invade Crimea, considering the "threat" to the
Crimean Tatars. Russia will not be able to resist Turkey because the
Turkish navy in the Black Sea has three times more capacity than the
Russian navy.
It is not ruled out that Azerbaijan will turn to Turkey for military
help and protection to which Ankara will react adequately. And in
this case Russia will not have the ability to resist Turkey except
provoking Karabakh War II. Iran will try to activate its presence in
the South Caucasus, fearing that Turkey will fill in the vacuum when
Russia will not fancy handling the region.
In this situation Russia expects Armenia's membership to the Customs
Union with "huge enthusiasm and brotherly feelings". However, Armenia
will run into isolation, and all the implications of the next round of
blockades will await it. Therefore, it is time to buy kersey boots,
canned fish and beef (canned pork is not good enough), all kinds of
cereals and beans, oil, matches and salt. The offices of pro-Russian
newspapers and TV companies will be battered, pro-Russian journalists
and commentators paid by Gazprom will be beaten severely (with baseball
bats). Apparently, the "right sector" has already emerged in Yerevan,
and the addresses and usual itineraries of "Gazprom's people" of the
mass media are well-known.
However, a different scenario is possible. Benefitting from the fuss
on the international area, Russia will try to change the regime
of Armenia which is not sufficiently convincingly pro-Russian and
bring the "Gazprom's people" to power. In that case, they will
not beat "Gazprom's people", while a horrible political terror and
repressions will be launched against the anti-colonial groups but one
will nevertheless have to buy canned food and kersey boots. This is
for sure.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32018#sthash.d6HNI6ev.dpuf
From: A. Papazian
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Monday, 03 March 2014, 14:25
The paradox is that it is happening when the United States has lost
interest in foreign policy, political and military presence in the
region and the European Union and the leading European states are
sincerely reluctant to deal with modest foreign political tasks. The
Western community tried demonstratively to limit its activity but
the West was suddenly pushed towards intensive isolation and blockade
of Russia.
The policy of isolation and blockade on behalf of the Western
community had a passive and relative character; such a policy could
be referred to as containment (the priority device of the United
States), not isolation. Currently it reminds of the policy of the
United States and the West on Russia at the moment of deployment of
forces in Afghanistan. If a hothead hits a Ukrainian civil plane,
the story of the Korean Boeing will repeat.
There is reason to expect certain instructions and introduction for
the troops on behalf of the command of NATO states. The U.S. and UK
navy will be put in movement towards certain directions. No doubt
Poland and Lithuania will accept such a turn as their star time and
will take efforts to provide military and technical assistance to
Ukraine, and NATO will do it through them.
So far the West has not taken specific and determined actions to
thwart the Russian economy, now all the great powers of the West
are interested in this. A tougher scenario would be the beginning
of a "cold war" in the result of which Russia will be hurled back
socially and economically for decades, will lose opportunities for
economic and social development, will have to consume its natural
and economic resources by an accelerated schedule. The result will
be another collapse of economy, political crisis and historic defeat.
V. Putin or his successor will be arrested and they will follow Mikhail
Gorbachev's destiny (at best). A lot of Armenians will remember him
as someone who understood their needs and hopes well. In addition,
it is taking place under less favorable political and historical
conditions when the West, like never before, is unanimous in its policy
on Russia. It did not gain partners in the South, and its key stake,
China, hurried to avoid Russia's hopes, including for SCO.
Russia will require that its vassals in CSTO react adequately,
and Armenia will be most vulnerable. It is possible that Russia
has already demanded something from Armenia, which is acceptable
considering Armenia's commitments to Russia. It should be noted that
Ukraine has modern rocket systems and could hit the Russian military
base in Gyumri.
In this situation Turkey and Azerbaijan will have every reason to act
analogically and use force against Armenia. Turkey has an opportunity
to "defend" its brotherly Azerbaijani people. Turkey has also received
a powerful leverage to invade Crimea, considering the "threat" to the
Crimean Tatars. Russia will not be able to resist Turkey because the
Turkish navy in the Black Sea has three times more capacity than the
Russian navy.
It is not ruled out that Azerbaijan will turn to Turkey for military
help and protection to which Ankara will react adequately. And in
this case Russia will not have the ability to resist Turkey except
provoking Karabakh War II. Iran will try to activate its presence in
the South Caucasus, fearing that Turkey will fill in the vacuum when
Russia will not fancy handling the region.
In this situation Russia expects Armenia's membership to the Customs
Union with "huge enthusiasm and brotherly feelings". However, Armenia
will run into isolation, and all the implications of the next round of
blockades will await it. Therefore, it is time to buy kersey boots,
canned fish and beef (canned pork is not good enough), all kinds of
cereals and beans, oil, matches and salt. The offices of pro-Russian
newspapers and TV companies will be battered, pro-Russian journalists
and commentators paid by Gazprom will be beaten severely (with baseball
bats). Apparently, the "right sector" has already emerged in Yerevan,
and the addresses and usual itineraries of "Gazprom's people" of the
mass media are well-known.
However, a different scenario is possible. Benefitting from the fuss
on the international area, Russia will try to change the regime
of Armenia which is not sufficiently convincingly pro-Russian and
bring the "Gazprom's people" to power. In that case, they will
not beat "Gazprom's people", while a horrible political terror and
repressions will be launched against the anti-colonial groups but one
will nevertheless have to buy canned food and kersey boots. This is
for sure.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32018#sthash.d6HNI6ev.dpuf
From: A. Papazian