Tweet
KARABAKH IS PREPARING TO ATTACK
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 04 November 2014, 00:04
The Azerbaijani foreign minister Mammedyarov has announced in an
interview with APA agency that the foreign ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan may meet in December under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk
Group. Mammedyarov also said something interesting. He said soon the
need for another Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting may arise.
This statement is also interesting because on October 27, after
the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Paris mediated by Francois Hollande
the French president's administration announced that agreement was
reached on the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in September 2015 in New York,
during the UN General Assembly.
If during the October 27 meeting in Paris agreement has been reached
to meet in New York in September 2015, it indicates some agreement
on the processes of the upcoming year, and it was at least taking
into account that no meeting would be needed over the next year.
And the need for a Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting arises or may arise for
two main reasons: either major agreement on settlement or maintenance
of the ceasefire and alleviation of tension.
If they agree in Paris to meet in New York in a year, it means that
the no breakthrough or escalation is "envisaged' over the next year at
least from the side of the U.S. and France. Evidence to this is the
Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting initiated by the United States during NATO
Wales Summit during which Secretary Kerry announced that violation
of the ceasefire is unacceptable.
Hence, if the United States and France are outlining a new meeting
one year later in New York, it means they are not planning a meeting
earlier. So who or what can arouse the need for a Sargsyan-Aliyev
meeting?
Mammedyarov's statement about such necessity is worrying because it
may mean a statement on Azerbaijan's likelihood to cause escalation
on the Armenian-Azerbaijani line of contact that will necessitate a
new Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting.
For Baku, escalation at the Armenian-Azerbaijani line of contact
remains the only point of contact with the international community.
Baku is suffering losses due to the falling prices of oil. At the same
time, Azerbaijan's expectation did not come true, and after Armenia
refrained from association with the European Union, the West did not
automatically move the bid on Azerbaijan. There were two essential
factors: first, the commitment of the Georgian government to the
Association Agreement and, second, the war of Russia against Ukraine
which changed the nature of the geopolitical processes and influenced
the Euro-Atlantic approaches and plans relating to the Caucasus.
It seems that everything turned upside down for Baku which has an
advantageous position. In addition, not only for Baku but also Turkey.
At the same time, the Islamic State was linked to Turkey and
Azerbaijan.
The process of normalization between Iran and the West also influenced
the geopolitical importance of Baku. Baku was hence forced to place
an order of another batch of weapons worth billion with Moscow and
allowed Rogozin to announce in Baku that Moscow and Baku are uniting
against the West. Apparently, however, even blackmail could not bring
its importance back for the West.
The only term of Baku's international political "importance" is the
issue of Artsakh and regular escalations. Baku would not have dared,
of course, but it obviously enjoys Russia's support, and Rogozin's
statements in Baku were Moscow's confessions. During the war in
August the Russian pro-Kremlin political scientists announced that
the escalation was Moscow's response to the West for Ukraine.
After the developments in Ukraine the West made efforts to not shift
the escalation to the Caucasus and to not cause a military aggression
of Russia in the Caucasus. Nevertheless, the Russian-Azerbaijani
attempt was made. It is not accidental that it coincided with the
visit of CSTO Secretary General Borduzha to Yerevan, and the August
escalation culminated immediately after the visit. The Armenian armed
forces did defend Armenia and Artsakh, then there was the meeting
in Sochi during which Putin called Aliyev to be patient. Obviously,
the call for patience had been caused by the failure of the first
military adventure with the expectation of the second attempt.
Mammedyarov's statement that the need for a new Sargsyan Aliyev
may arise soon is obviously evidence to a planned second attempt
of military adventure thanks to which Russia will try to keep in
sight the process of movement of the negotiation process towards the
Euro-Atlantic environment.
At the same time, it is not ruled out that with his statement
Mammedyarov is simply trading off this attempt or, in other words,
hinting to the West that steps should be taken to prevent them.
Baku's state is not enviable. The next military adventure may cost
Aliyev a high price because the United States has hinted clearly in
Newport that war is unacceptable. Of course, Russia is obstinate,
and it is not easy to give it up. Perhaps, therefore, Aliyev has
decided to get off the train, disclosing Russia's plans, expecting
the West to thwart them.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33167#sthash.iPxD1WI3.dpuf
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 04 November 2014, 00:04
The Azerbaijani foreign minister Mammedyarov has announced in an
interview with APA agency that the foreign ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan may meet in December under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk
Group. Mammedyarov also said something interesting. He said soon the
need for another Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting may arise.
This statement is also interesting because on October 27, after
the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Paris mediated by Francois Hollande
the French president's administration announced that agreement was
reached on the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in September 2015 in New York,
during the UN General Assembly.
If during the October 27 meeting in Paris agreement has been reached
to meet in New York in September 2015, it indicates some agreement
on the processes of the upcoming year, and it was at least taking
into account that no meeting would be needed over the next year.
And the need for a Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting arises or may arise for
two main reasons: either major agreement on settlement or maintenance
of the ceasefire and alleviation of tension.
If they agree in Paris to meet in New York in a year, it means that
the no breakthrough or escalation is "envisaged' over the next year at
least from the side of the U.S. and France. Evidence to this is the
Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting initiated by the United States during NATO
Wales Summit during which Secretary Kerry announced that violation
of the ceasefire is unacceptable.
Hence, if the United States and France are outlining a new meeting
one year later in New York, it means they are not planning a meeting
earlier. So who or what can arouse the need for a Sargsyan-Aliyev
meeting?
Mammedyarov's statement about such necessity is worrying because it
may mean a statement on Azerbaijan's likelihood to cause escalation
on the Armenian-Azerbaijani line of contact that will necessitate a
new Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting.
For Baku, escalation at the Armenian-Azerbaijani line of contact
remains the only point of contact with the international community.
Baku is suffering losses due to the falling prices of oil. At the same
time, Azerbaijan's expectation did not come true, and after Armenia
refrained from association with the European Union, the West did not
automatically move the bid on Azerbaijan. There were two essential
factors: first, the commitment of the Georgian government to the
Association Agreement and, second, the war of Russia against Ukraine
which changed the nature of the geopolitical processes and influenced
the Euro-Atlantic approaches and plans relating to the Caucasus.
It seems that everything turned upside down for Baku which has an
advantageous position. In addition, not only for Baku but also Turkey.
At the same time, the Islamic State was linked to Turkey and
Azerbaijan.
The process of normalization between Iran and the West also influenced
the geopolitical importance of Baku. Baku was hence forced to place
an order of another batch of weapons worth billion with Moscow and
allowed Rogozin to announce in Baku that Moscow and Baku are uniting
against the West. Apparently, however, even blackmail could not bring
its importance back for the West.
The only term of Baku's international political "importance" is the
issue of Artsakh and regular escalations. Baku would not have dared,
of course, but it obviously enjoys Russia's support, and Rogozin's
statements in Baku were Moscow's confessions. During the war in
August the Russian pro-Kremlin political scientists announced that
the escalation was Moscow's response to the West for Ukraine.
After the developments in Ukraine the West made efforts to not shift
the escalation to the Caucasus and to not cause a military aggression
of Russia in the Caucasus. Nevertheless, the Russian-Azerbaijani
attempt was made. It is not accidental that it coincided with the
visit of CSTO Secretary General Borduzha to Yerevan, and the August
escalation culminated immediately after the visit. The Armenian armed
forces did defend Armenia and Artsakh, then there was the meeting
in Sochi during which Putin called Aliyev to be patient. Obviously,
the call for patience had been caused by the failure of the first
military adventure with the expectation of the second attempt.
Mammedyarov's statement that the need for a new Sargsyan Aliyev
may arise soon is obviously evidence to a planned second attempt
of military adventure thanks to which Russia will try to keep in
sight the process of movement of the negotiation process towards the
Euro-Atlantic environment.
At the same time, it is not ruled out that with his statement
Mammedyarov is simply trading off this attempt or, in other words,
hinting to the West that steps should be taken to prevent them.
Baku's state is not enviable. The next military adventure may cost
Aliyev a high price because the United States has hinted clearly in
Newport that war is unacceptable. Of course, Russia is obstinate,
and it is not easy to give it up. Perhaps, therefore, Aliyev has
decided to get off the train, disclosing Russia's plans, expecting
the West to thwart them.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33167#sthash.iPxD1WI3.dpuf