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POLITICAL CRISIS IN GEORGIA: NEIGHBORING COUNTRY'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS MAY IMPACT ARMENIA'S FOREIGN RELATIONS
Commentary | 07.11.14 | 10:43
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
A looming government crisis in Georgia may question the planned
integration of Armenia into the Eurasian Union and lead to new tensions
in the South Caucasus region.
Leader of the Free Democrats party, member of the Georgian Dream
ruling coalition Irakliy Alasania was removed from the post of defense
minister in connection with a corruption scandal. Foreign Minister Maya
Pandjikidze and Minister for European Integration Alexiy Petriashvili
tendered their resignations as well following the development.
The removal of three key ministers responsible for Georgia's
integration into the EU and NATO caused concern in the West - there
was even information about Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili's
alleged support from "Russian oligarch", former Prime Minister Bidzina
Ivanishvili, who is allegedly going to disrupt the European integration
of Georgia.
The Garibashvili government has denied any deviation from
the Euro-Atlantic course, but its whole policy was aimed at the
restoration of relations with Russia, which is beginning to gain
increasing influence in Georgia after it plunged to the minimum as
a result of the 2008 war in South Ossetia.
According to Alasania, the corruption scandal at his ministry occurred
at a time when he was in Germany and France conducting negotiations
regarding the deployment of air defense forces in Georgia. Such
deployment is opposed by Russia, and it was simply decided to remove
him from office, some in Georgia believe.
While some experts talk about a possible change of the European course
in Georgia, almost all recognize that the majority of the country's
population fully supports the Euro-Atlantic policy, and if it comes to
early elections and a referendum, it is not excluded that Georgia will
irreversibly vote for integration with the Euro-Atlantic community,
which, in turn, may tear Armenia from the "Eurasian" space.
There are also opinions predicting a new "Maidan" in Georgia -
political analysts in Tbilisi argue that Russia, which has lost
Ukraine, but managed to grab parts of it - Crimea, partly the regions
of Donetsk to Luhansk, can do the same in Georgia. In particular,
they mention mainly Muslim Ajaria and Armenian-populated Javakhk.
Georgia is a key transit area to Russia for Armenia. If communication
between Georgia and Russia is stopped as it was in 2008, then Armenia
will have to seek other ways of communication. In mid-November,
Georgia's minister of economy was planning to visit Armenia to discuss
the procedure for the transit of goods to Russia from Armenia after
its entry into the Eurasian Union.
However, the government crisis in Georgia may postpone such
negotiations for long. Besides, Georgia may sharply raise transit
fees, which would reduce all benefits of Eurasian Union membership
to zero for Armenia.
In the case of inter-ethnic strife that may be inspirited in Georgia
the country's sizable Armenian community whose foreign-policy
orientation may be jeopardized.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/58316/armenia_georgia_government_crisis_european_integra tion
Commentary | 07.11.14 | 10:43
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
A looming government crisis in Georgia may question the planned
integration of Armenia into the Eurasian Union and lead to new tensions
in the South Caucasus region.
Leader of the Free Democrats party, member of the Georgian Dream
ruling coalition Irakliy Alasania was removed from the post of defense
minister in connection with a corruption scandal. Foreign Minister Maya
Pandjikidze and Minister for European Integration Alexiy Petriashvili
tendered their resignations as well following the development.
The removal of three key ministers responsible for Georgia's
integration into the EU and NATO caused concern in the West - there
was even information about Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili's
alleged support from "Russian oligarch", former Prime Minister Bidzina
Ivanishvili, who is allegedly going to disrupt the European integration
of Georgia.
The Garibashvili government has denied any deviation from
the Euro-Atlantic course, but its whole policy was aimed at the
restoration of relations with Russia, which is beginning to gain
increasing influence in Georgia after it plunged to the minimum as
a result of the 2008 war in South Ossetia.
According to Alasania, the corruption scandal at his ministry occurred
at a time when he was in Germany and France conducting negotiations
regarding the deployment of air defense forces in Georgia. Such
deployment is opposed by Russia, and it was simply decided to remove
him from office, some in Georgia believe.
While some experts talk about a possible change of the European course
in Georgia, almost all recognize that the majority of the country's
population fully supports the Euro-Atlantic policy, and if it comes to
early elections and a referendum, it is not excluded that Georgia will
irreversibly vote for integration with the Euro-Atlantic community,
which, in turn, may tear Armenia from the "Eurasian" space.
There are also opinions predicting a new "Maidan" in Georgia -
political analysts in Tbilisi argue that Russia, which has lost
Ukraine, but managed to grab parts of it - Crimea, partly the regions
of Donetsk to Luhansk, can do the same in Georgia. In particular,
they mention mainly Muslim Ajaria and Armenian-populated Javakhk.
Georgia is a key transit area to Russia for Armenia. If communication
between Georgia and Russia is stopped as it was in 2008, then Armenia
will have to seek other ways of communication. In mid-November,
Georgia's minister of economy was planning to visit Armenia to discuss
the procedure for the transit of goods to Russia from Armenia after
its entry into the Eurasian Union.
However, the government crisis in Georgia may postpone such
negotiations for long. Besides, Georgia may sharply raise transit
fees, which would reduce all benefits of Eurasian Union membership
to zero for Armenia.
In the case of inter-ethnic strife that may be inspirited in Georgia
the country's sizable Armenian community whose foreign-policy
orientation may be jeopardized.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/58316/armenia_georgia_government_crisis_european_integra tion