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ON THE WARPATH?: CONCERNS RISE OVER FRAGILE KARABAKH TRUCE AFTER AZERBAIJAN SHOOTS DOWN ARMENIAN HELICOPTER
ANALYSIS | 14.11.14 | 10:26
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/58487/armenia_helicopter_downed_azerbaijan_karabakh
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
"The threat of a full-blown war" appears to be the most frequently
met phrase in international reactions to this week's major incident
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone where an Armenian military
helicopter flying in the neutral zone was downed by Azerbaijani forces.
The incident in which three Armenian pilots are presumed dead elicited
a wide international response as the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the European Union, NATO, the Collective
Security Treaty Organization and other international bodies voiced
concern about a possible escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh
in the wake of the development.
The main question after the incident appears to be Armenia's response.
Will it lead to renewed large scale-hostilities and, finally, who will
benefit from such exacerbation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Armenia did not immediately retaliate, but Defense Ministry spokesman
Artsrun Hovhannisyan warned that the consequences for Azerbaijan will
be "painful". Nagorno-Karabakh's Defense Minister Movses Hakobyan also
said that the Armenian side will hit [Azerbaijan] where it hurts most.
He did not elaborate.
In response, Azerbaijan declared a 'no-fly zone' over Nagorno-Karabakh,
thus threatening to hit all aircraft in its airspace (it considers the
airspace of Nagorno-Karabakh to be part of it). The same day, however,
President Serzh Sargsyan defiantly flew to Nagorno-Karabakh on board
a helicopter. The goal of his trip was to watch the joint military
drills of the Armenian and Karabakh armed forces being conducted
there. The Armenian leader did not make statements immediately, but
his trip and the fact that he went there on board a helicopter was
taken as defiance of Azerbaijani threats.
The Armenian side cannot take action while the bodies of its three
pilots who are presumed dead are in the neutral territory and that
territory is under intense Azeri fire. Nagorno-Karabakh has already
asked the International Committee of the Red Cross to assist in
bringing back its officers, but the Azerbaijani side has not yet
responded to the request. It is believed that Baku will demand the
return of its two citizens who are now being tried in Stepanakert
over killings and sabotage acts in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, Armenian politicians and experts are trying to find
an answer to the question on whether a full-scale war is in the
interests of Azerbaijan. For example, some insist on reciprocal steps
- for example, to establish control over the territories that are
called neutral today, and secondly it is proposed to start shooting
down Azerbaijani military aircraft that are within the reach of the
Armenian defense.
At the same time, there are calls not to give in to Azerbaijani
provocations and prevent violations of the status quo that is
favorable for the Armenian side. A full-scale war appears to suit
Azerbaijan and Turkey as the international community is trying to
force these two countries to lift the blockades of Armenia and the
region as a whole. Turkey and Azerbaijan demand "concessions" from
Armenia for doing that and it is not ruled out that in order to get
such concessions they will attempt to provoke hostilities.
From: A. Papazian
ANALYSIS | 14.11.14 | 10:26
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/58487/armenia_helicopter_downed_azerbaijan_karabakh
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
"The threat of a full-blown war" appears to be the most frequently
met phrase in international reactions to this week's major incident
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone where an Armenian military
helicopter flying in the neutral zone was downed by Azerbaijani forces.
The incident in which three Armenian pilots are presumed dead elicited
a wide international response as the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the European Union, NATO, the Collective
Security Treaty Organization and other international bodies voiced
concern about a possible escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh
in the wake of the development.
The main question after the incident appears to be Armenia's response.
Will it lead to renewed large scale-hostilities and, finally, who will
benefit from such exacerbation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Armenia did not immediately retaliate, but Defense Ministry spokesman
Artsrun Hovhannisyan warned that the consequences for Azerbaijan will
be "painful". Nagorno-Karabakh's Defense Minister Movses Hakobyan also
said that the Armenian side will hit [Azerbaijan] where it hurts most.
He did not elaborate.
In response, Azerbaijan declared a 'no-fly zone' over Nagorno-Karabakh,
thus threatening to hit all aircraft in its airspace (it considers the
airspace of Nagorno-Karabakh to be part of it). The same day, however,
President Serzh Sargsyan defiantly flew to Nagorno-Karabakh on board
a helicopter. The goal of his trip was to watch the joint military
drills of the Armenian and Karabakh armed forces being conducted
there. The Armenian leader did not make statements immediately, but
his trip and the fact that he went there on board a helicopter was
taken as defiance of Azerbaijani threats.
The Armenian side cannot take action while the bodies of its three
pilots who are presumed dead are in the neutral territory and that
territory is under intense Azeri fire. Nagorno-Karabakh has already
asked the International Committee of the Red Cross to assist in
bringing back its officers, but the Azerbaijani side has not yet
responded to the request. It is believed that Baku will demand the
return of its two citizens who are now being tried in Stepanakert
over killings and sabotage acts in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, Armenian politicians and experts are trying to find
an answer to the question on whether a full-scale war is in the
interests of Azerbaijan. For example, some insist on reciprocal steps
- for example, to establish control over the territories that are
called neutral today, and secondly it is proposed to start shooting
down Azerbaijani military aircraft that are within the reach of the
Armenian defense.
At the same time, there are calls not to give in to Azerbaijani
provocations and prevent violations of the status quo that is
favorable for the Armenian side. A full-scale war appears to suit
Azerbaijan and Turkey as the international community is trying to
force these two countries to lift the blockades of Armenia and the
region as a whole. Turkey and Azerbaijan demand "concessions" from
Armenia for doing that and it is not ruled out that in order to get
such concessions they will attempt to provoke hostilities.
From: A. Papazian