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SERZH SARGSYAN'S CHALLENGE TO AZERBAIJAN
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 14 November 2014, 13:18
Serzh Sargsyan has gone to Artsakh. He went there by helicopter.
Recently he has always travelled to Artsakh by helicopter but this
visit is special not only because on the eve there had been an
unprecedented encroachment on the Armenian armed forces, namely the
Armenian helicopter was shot down from the territory of Azerbaijan
during the training exercise. Sargsyan's travel to Artsakh by
helicopter is notable after Azerbaijan announced Artsakh a no fly area.
After shooting down the Armenian helicopter Azerbaijan declared
Artsakh a no fly area and notified the International Civil Aviation
Organization. It means that Azerbaijan intends to shoot down different
flying devices in that territory.
Of course, the sky of Artsakh was a no fly area with or without this
statement. Therefore, the newly-built airport of Stepanakert is not
operated for civil flight though Serzh Sargsyan had announced two
years before that he was going to be the first passenger flying to
Stepanakert. Now Serzh Sargsyan is a passenger of the helicopter.
Serzh Sargsyan demonstrates with his flight that Azerbaijanis were
just boasting. In other words, Serzh Sargsyan is trying to prevent
the consequences of Azerbaijan's statement. And the statement was,
in fact, made for the purpose of propaganda.
On the other hand, the question occurs whether Serzh Sargsyan's visit
to Artsakh pursued a purpose other than his visit to Artsakh. It
is early to speak about it, and everything will become clear in the
result of the visit.
It is not ruled out that over this period the response to Azerbaijan
will become known. Although, it is possible that Serzh Sargsyan's
visit to Artsakh will replace the response, and for the time being,
the Armenian side will refrain from a direct military response until
the reaction of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs becomes known.
The Minsk Group co-chairs have announced that further escalation
is unacceptable. However, it does not mean that they do not allow
Armenia to respond. Perhaps, the issue is the scale of the response.
At the same time, Baku has awarded the serviceman who hit the Armenian
helicopter. Aliyev would do this in two cases: either he has an
international guarantee that he will go with impunity or he has
altogether lost his link to reality. Although, there may be a third
option as well. Aliyev is aware of what he is doing but he is going
through a stage of deep geopolitical and economic stagnation and he
thinks that he has nothing to lose and is thus behaving like a shaheed.
However, this option is related to the option of losing the link to
the reality because what happened in the Near East and Arab states
should teach Aliyev that shaheedism is not a way out and only further
complicates things.
On the other hand, one should not forget that we are dealing with big
politics where issues are not resolved by a magic stick and countries
do not disappear from the map by a single stroke of pen. They
are there and they can win and lose during the working political
process, and everything depends on how they perform. And in this
sense, no matter how impressive Serzh Sargsyan's flight to Artsakh,
the important question is not how, when and where he flies but how
he is going to act not allow Aliyev to get away with the helicopter
like he got away with Safarov's extradition.
In addition, the problem now is deeper and has multiple layers
because we are not just dealing with a violation of the ceasefire
but Azerbaijan is actually trying a new option of a disguised war
- long-range shoot down of military equipment - that will come to
replace the war of snipers or saboteurs.
In any case, Baku's action may mark change of tactics or methodology
of the disguised war waged by Azerbaijan since the ceasefire which Baku
has apparently decided to try, as well as an attempt to adapt it among
the international community after a defeat of saboteurs in August.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33220#sthash.aCnZL2mH.dpuf
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 14 November 2014, 13:18
Serzh Sargsyan has gone to Artsakh. He went there by helicopter.
Recently he has always travelled to Artsakh by helicopter but this
visit is special not only because on the eve there had been an
unprecedented encroachment on the Armenian armed forces, namely the
Armenian helicopter was shot down from the territory of Azerbaijan
during the training exercise. Sargsyan's travel to Artsakh by
helicopter is notable after Azerbaijan announced Artsakh a no fly area.
After shooting down the Armenian helicopter Azerbaijan declared
Artsakh a no fly area and notified the International Civil Aviation
Organization. It means that Azerbaijan intends to shoot down different
flying devices in that territory.
Of course, the sky of Artsakh was a no fly area with or without this
statement. Therefore, the newly-built airport of Stepanakert is not
operated for civil flight though Serzh Sargsyan had announced two
years before that he was going to be the first passenger flying to
Stepanakert. Now Serzh Sargsyan is a passenger of the helicopter.
Serzh Sargsyan demonstrates with his flight that Azerbaijanis were
just boasting. In other words, Serzh Sargsyan is trying to prevent
the consequences of Azerbaijan's statement. And the statement was,
in fact, made for the purpose of propaganda.
On the other hand, the question occurs whether Serzh Sargsyan's visit
to Artsakh pursued a purpose other than his visit to Artsakh. It
is early to speak about it, and everything will become clear in the
result of the visit.
It is not ruled out that over this period the response to Azerbaijan
will become known. Although, it is possible that Serzh Sargsyan's
visit to Artsakh will replace the response, and for the time being,
the Armenian side will refrain from a direct military response until
the reaction of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs becomes known.
The Minsk Group co-chairs have announced that further escalation
is unacceptable. However, it does not mean that they do not allow
Armenia to respond. Perhaps, the issue is the scale of the response.
At the same time, Baku has awarded the serviceman who hit the Armenian
helicopter. Aliyev would do this in two cases: either he has an
international guarantee that he will go with impunity or he has
altogether lost his link to reality. Although, there may be a third
option as well. Aliyev is aware of what he is doing but he is going
through a stage of deep geopolitical and economic stagnation and he
thinks that he has nothing to lose and is thus behaving like a shaheed.
However, this option is related to the option of losing the link to
the reality because what happened in the Near East and Arab states
should teach Aliyev that shaheedism is not a way out and only further
complicates things.
On the other hand, one should not forget that we are dealing with big
politics where issues are not resolved by a magic stick and countries
do not disappear from the map by a single stroke of pen. They
are there and they can win and lose during the working political
process, and everything depends on how they perform. And in this
sense, no matter how impressive Serzh Sargsyan's flight to Artsakh,
the important question is not how, when and where he flies but how
he is going to act not allow Aliyev to get away with the helicopter
like he got away with Safarov's extradition.
In addition, the problem now is deeper and has multiple layers
because we are not just dealing with a violation of the ceasefire
but Azerbaijan is actually trying a new option of a disguised war
- long-range shoot down of military equipment - that will come to
replace the war of snipers or saboteurs.
In any case, Baku's action may mark change of tactics or methodology
of the disguised war waged by Azerbaijan since the ceasefire which Baku
has apparently decided to try, as well as an attempt to adapt it among
the international community after a defeat of saboteurs in August.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33220#sthash.aCnZL2mH.dpuf