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IHS Global Insight
November 13, 2014
Downing of helicopter increases risks of retaliatory attacks against
Azerbaijani military helicopters patrolling LoC
by Alex Melikishvili
Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defence (MoD) issued a press release on 12
November regarding the shooting down of a Mi-24 helicopter gunship
(NATO designation: Hind). The Azerbaijani MoD claims that it was an
Armenian military helicopter and it had been shot down after it
"attempted to attack" Azerbaijani positions. The incident took place
in the airspace above the eastern part of the Line of Contact (LOC)
separating Azerbaijan proper from the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh
region. The helicopter crashed 1.7 km northeast of Kengerli village in
Agdam district on the Azerbaijani-controlled territory and 500 meters
from LoC. All three pilots on board are presumed dead. The Armenian
MoD claims that the helicopter belonged to the Nagorno-Karabakh army.
According to the Armenian MoD, it was carrying out a training flight
as part of the large-scale (involving 17,000 Armenian troops and
30,000 Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers) joint operational-tactical exercises
"Unity 2014", which have been under way since 6 November in the
eastern part of Nagorno-Karabakh. A spokesperson for the Armenian MoD
called the incident an "unprecedented provocation" and vowed "grave
consequences" for Azerbaijan. The European Union and the Organization
for Security and Co-operation in Europe called on both sides to show
restraint.
Significance:This is the second major escalation along the LoC this
year and the first time an aircraft has been shot down in the area
since combat ended in 1994 (seeAzerbaijan: 5 August 2014:Major
ceasefire violation likely intended to put pressure on mediators of
Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia). Azerbaijan's
action is likely in response to Armenia's joint manoeuvres with
Nagorno-Karabakh forces. In the context of Azerbaijan's considerable
defence procurement, it reflects the country's increased willingness
to assert more control over its airspace without necessarily
increasing interstate war risks. However, the incident considerably
raises the risk of the downing of Azerbaijani military helicopters,
which resumed aerial patrols along the LoC in August, by
Nagorno-Karabakh forces. The incident in Nagorno-Karabakh is highly
unlikely to have an impact on civilian aviation in Azerbaijan proper.
November 13, 2014
Downing of helicopter increases risks of retaliatory attacks against
Azerbaijani military helicopters patrolling LoC
by Alex Melikishvili
Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defence (MoD) issued a press release on 12
November regarding the shooting down of a Mi-24 helicopter gunship
(NATO designation: Hind). The Azerbaijani MoD claims that it was an
Armenian military helicopter and it had been shot down after it
"attempted to attack" Azerbaijani positions. The incident took place
in the airspace above the eastern part of the Line of Contact (LOC)
separating Azerbaijan proper from the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh
region. The helicopter crashed 1.7 km northeast of Kengerli village in
Agdam district on the Azerbaijani-controlled territory and 500 meters
from LoC. All three pilots on board are presumed dead. The Armenian
MoD claims that the helicopter belonged to the Nagorno-Karabakh army.
According to the Armenian MoD, it was carrying out a training flight
as part of the large-scale (involving 17,000 Armenian troops and
30,000 Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers) joint operational-tactical exercises
"Unity 2014", which have been under way since 6 November in the
eastern part of Nagorno-Karabakh. A spokesperson for the Armenian MoD
called the incident an "unprecedented provocation" and vowed "grave
consequences" for Azerbaijan. The European Union and the Organization
for Security and Co-operation in Europe called on both sides to show
restraint.
Significance:This is the second major escalation along the LoC this
year and the first time an aircraft has been shot down in the area
since combat ended in 1994 (seeAzerbaijan: 5 August 2014:Major
ceasefire violation likely intended to put pressure on mediators of
Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia). Azerbaijan's
action is likely in response to Armenia's joint manoeuvres with
Nagorno-Karabakh forces. In the context of Azerbaijan's considerable
defence procurement, it reflects the country's increased willingness
to assert more control over its airspace without necessarily
increasing interstate war risks. However, the incident considerably
raises the risk of the downing of Azerbaijani military helicopters,
which resumed aerial patrols along the LoC in August, by
Nagorno-Karabakh forces. The incident in Nagorno-Karabakh is highly
unlikely to have an impact on civilian aviation in Azerbaijan proper.